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Both of my MLB home run picks on Saturday come from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Zach Eflin and Zack Littell are on the mound today, and though they can't agree on name spelling, they do share the same trait of coughing up homers in droves. Both are worth targeting in this prop market.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 28, featuring Colton Cowser and Brandon Lowe.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Cowser to hit a home run (+390)
A lot of the Orioles' promising young hitters have underperformed expectations this season, but Cowser isn't among them.
The 25-year-old outfielder is slugging .530 for Baltimore. Unfortunately, due to injury, he's only played 23 games.
In small spurts, though, he's really put a charge into the ball. His 12.7% barrel rate would be right around the 80th percentile if he was a qualified hitter, per Baseball Savant.
Cowser bats from the left side, and as you'd expect, he does most of his damage against right-handed pitchers. He has a .651 SLG in 63 at-bats vs. RHPs this season.
Among 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Tampa right-hander Zack Littell has the fourth-highest HR/9 (2.03) in the majors.
Littell has allowed 11 HRs in just his past four road starts.
He also has one of the lowest walk rates in MLB (2.8%, 99th percentile), along with a very low strikeout rate (16.9%, 14th percentile), so Cowser should have opportunities to barrel something up.
Key stat: Cowser is 17-for-63 (.270) vs. RHPs this season, and 12 of those 17 hits went for extra bases.
Best HR predictions
Lowe to hit a home run (+410): Eflin is just as homer-friendly of a pitcher as Littell, which makes a left bat like Lowe worth a look on Saturday.
In the aforementioned data set of 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Eflin has the second-highest HR/9 (2.21).
He also has a very low walk rate (4.2%, 96th percentile) and has allowed a ton of homers recently (13 HRs in his past seven starts).
Now let's talk about Lowe, who is slugging .539 vs. RHPs this season and has homered in back-to-back games.
Lowe is currently on a 14-game hitting streak in which he has a .404/.433/.649 slash line. I love his opportunity to do some big-time damage against a mistake-prone pitcher.
MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/28/2025.
