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There are only a few night games on Saturday, and I'm drawing from one of them for one of my top MLB prop bets.
Today's MLB props narrative: Though he's been slumping this month, Marcell Ozuna has demonstrated elite plate discipline this year that allows him to get on base at a high rate. Ozuna and the Braves face Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, whose recent outings have been a rollercoaster ride.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 28, featuring Cal Raleigh and Jesus Sanchez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (+110)
When I see Raleigh getting plus-money odds to go over 1.5 total bases, my interest is automatically piqued.
Amid a spectacular year in which he leads MLB in home runs (32) and RBI (69), Raleigh is a serious threat to cash this prop on a nightly basis.
- As a switch-hitter, he never has a platoon disadvantage. Raleigh is slugging is north of .600 from both sides of the plate.
- Hard contact comes at a high clip for Raleigh. He ranks in the 98th percentile for barrel rate (20.0%) and the 97th percentile for xSLG (.583), per Baseball Savant.
- Raleigh is 15-10 vs. this prop in his past 25 games, posting a 1.164 OPS in that span.
On Saturday, he'll face struggling right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has a 6.68 ERA in eight starts.
Rocker ranks in the fourth percentile or worse in xBA (.306), xERA (5.75), hard-hit rate (49.6%) and average exit velocity (91.9 mph). This is a pitcher Raleigh should be able to take advantage of.
And we've seen it before, as Raleigh went 2-for-3 with a double in an April game that Rocker started against the Mariners.
Key stat: On the season, Raleigh is averaging 2.4 bases/game in 79 starts.
Best MLB picks
Sanchez over 0.5 runs (+120): The Miami Marlins' offence has been cooking so far on its NL West road trip, scoring 33 runs in four games. I think that kind of outburst can continue against Brandon Pfaadt.
Arizona's starter has allowed 28 runs on 39 hits over his past 29.2 innings, which equates to an 8.49 ERA. Woof.
Sanchez, a left-hitting outfielder, has a .783 OPS in his career against right-handed pitchers.
And lefties have an .861 OPS off Pfaadt this year, so this matchup definitely swings in Sanchez's favour.
From the No. 2 spot in the Marlins' lineup, Sanchez should be right in the middle of the offensive action. He has scored 17 runs in his past 22 starts.
Ozuna over 0.5 runs (+128): Ozuna still wields a power bat in his age-34 season, but he also knows a thing or two about drawing a walk.
The designated hitter has a 16.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile.
Ozuna sees left-handed pitching particularly well, evidenced by his .426 on-base percentage vs. LHPs this season.
Philadelphia's Luzardo has allowed 15 runs in his past three road starts, and he's someone Ozuna has thrived against in the past.
Ozuna is 5-for-13 in this head-to-head matchup with a home run, a double and a walk.
MLB prop picks made at 11:09 a.m. ET on 06/28/2025.
