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Gunnar Henderson and Ketel Marte headline Sunday's MLB prop bets.
Today's MLB props narrative: The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays' weekend series has been loaded with offence, and I expect Henderson to keep that trend going in a favourable matchup. After that, look for Marte to do damage against a struggling righty.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 28, featuring a fade on J.T. Realmuto.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Marte over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Marte is hitting for average and power, and gets a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. What's not to like?
The Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman is slashing .344/.426/.656 this month with nine extra-base hits in his last 10 games.
He hit his 16th home run of the season yesterday, bringing his season-long OPS to 1.000. That would rank fourth in all of MLB had he played enough innings to qualify.
Ketel Marte three-run home run! pic.twitter.com/u6aTiUkuos
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2025
Today, he goes up against Cal Quantrill, who has been a gas can for the Miami Marlins.
The righty owns a 5.56 ERA and has given up a home run in five of his last six starts. Quantrill's 5.63 xERA and .295 xBA both rank in the fifth percentile, indicating those results have been deserved.
Marte is 3-for-11 against Quantrill with a .362 xBA and .706 xSLG.
Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .648 against RHP this season.
Best MLB picks
Henderson over 1.5 total bases (-113): Henderson checks every box I typically look for when backing a player on their bases prop.
- Recent form: The shortstop is slashing .323/.420/.453 this month.
- Favourable splits: Henderson is slugging .532 against righties (.263 vs. LHP) and .493 at home (.383 on the road).
- Head-to-head matchup: Taj Bradley starts for the Rays today. Henderson is 6-for-14 against the righty with a double and a home run.
Bradley has gotten roughed up a few times this month. He gave up seven ER in 4.1 IP against the Miami Marlins on June 7 and six ER in 1.1 IP against the Orioles on June 18.
Henderson shot a double into left against Bradley in that start and added another single later in the game.
Realmuto under 0.5 hits (+143): I want a piece of Spencer Strider today, but believe his 7.5 strikeout total is a tad too high against a disciplined Philadelphia Phillies squad.
The fireballing righty is in great form right now, racking up 29 strikeouts over his last three starts. That's raised his season-long K rate to 30.5%, which is in the 90th percentile.
Strider also issues plenty of walks, which makes Realmuto a prime fade candidate in the hits department.
- Philadelphia's catcher is hitless in four of his last five games.
- Realmuto is 3-for-24 lifetime against Stirder with a 48.1% K rate.
I don't expect Realmuto to make any solid contact, and believe his best chance of reaching the basepaths is via a walk.
Atlanta's bullpen also owns the 10th-best ERA (3.65) in MLB. It's not like Realmuto will be on easy street once Strider exits the game.
MLB prop picks made at 9:01 a.m. ET on 06/29/2025.
