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PSG meets up with Inter Miami in the FIFA Club World Cup Round of 16 on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: The Parisians are fresh off a Champions League title and are massive favourites to advance past a far inferior MLS side. Lionel Messi has been instrumental in getting the Herons to this point, but will need to turn back the clock to eliminate his old team.
Check out my PSG vs. Inter Miami SGP predictions for June 29, featuring Messi and Ousmane Dembele.
PSG vs. Inter Miami predictions
Parlay: PSG halftime/fulltime | Dembele to score | Messi under 2.5 shots (+340)
PSG halftime/fulltime (-175): I'm expecting a one-sided affair at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.
PSG earned the title of European champions after knocking out several top-end teams en route to their blowout win in the UCL final:
- Round of 16: Beat Liverpool (EPL champions)
- Semifinal: Beat Arsenal (EPL runners-up)
- Final: Beat Inter Milan (Serie A runners-up)
The Parisians' title win came in a 5-0 thrashing, and PSG picked up where it left off in the FIFA Club World Cup with a 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid.
Luis Enrique's side took a shocking loss in the following game, but that was without several starters, including Ballon d'Or contender Ousmane Dembele, in the lineup.
Inter Miami is a good team by MLS standards, but expecting it to compete against a well-oiled machine like PSG is taking things too far.
Messi is only one man, and he just turned 38 years old. I'll side with the younger, more talented squad all day.
Go to full PSG vs. Inter Miami betting markets
Other SGP legs
Dembele to score (-122): Dembele has built a very strong case to win the Ballon d'Or.
He led PSG with 21 goals in Ligue 1 and added another eight in their Champions League campaign — and that's not even to mention everything else he does as a playmaker and defender.
The Frenchman sat out the first three games for PSG, which means he should be fresh for this elimination stage game.
Dembele has averaged 0.87 non-penalty xG per 90 over the last 365 days. That ranks in the 98th percentile compared to positional peers in Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL, per FBRef.
Messi under 2.5 shots (-120): Fading Messi is no fun, but I expect PSG to dominate possession in this fixture and keep Inter Miami backed into its own final third.
Enrique's side employs relentless pressing tactics that force opponents to make passes and, ultimately, mistakes.
The Parisians held 73% possession against the Seattle Sounders — another MLS side — in their last game. That marked the fourth time in the last five games PSG held over 70% possession, with the outlier being against Inter Milan in the UCL Final. But even then, PSG had 60%.
If Miami can't get the ball, Messi won't be able to work his magic.
The Argentinian has also gone under this mark in back-to-back games against far worse teams than PSG.
PSG vs. Inter Miami predictions made at 3:30 p.m. on 06/27/2025.
