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Two divisional titles are on the line at UFC 317 this weekend.
The pre-fight narrative: Ilia Topuria battles Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, and the former is heavily favoured in his divisional debut. Before that, Alexandre Pantoja aims for a fourth consecutive flyweight title defence.
Check out my UFC 317 predictions for the June 28 event in Las Vegas, featuring a pick on the main event and one on Brandon Royval.
UFC 317 predictions overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 314 predictions | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Royval to win | -103 | Add to betslip |
| Topuria vs. Oliveira over 1.5 rounds | -137 | Add to betslip |
UFC 314 predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/26/25.
Go to full UFC 317 betting markets.
UFC 317 predictions
Best Bet: Royval to win (-103)
Royval is a slight underdog against the up-and-coming Joshua Van, but I’ll gladly side with the veteran here.
Raw Dawg has fought for the flyweight belt before, losing to Pantoja by unanimous decision. That was the second time he was defeated by the current champ since 2021 — but other than that, he owns a spotless 5-0 record.
Van is taking this fight on short notice after Manel Kape was forced to withdraw with a broken foot.
The 23-year-old is on a four-fight winning streak, but has struggled to flash finishing power in the UFC. Five of his seven wins in the promotion have been by decision, with a late third-round KO mixed in.
Royval has only been knocked out once in 24 career fights and is an elite grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and nine submissions to his name.
Van is a classic brawler, landing a blistering 8.20 significant strikes per minute. So Royval's path to victory here is pretty clear: utilize his reach, press in tight for knees and elbows, and capitalize on a takedown opportunity when it comes.
I also think Van might run out of steam quickly.
He fought a three-round war against Bruno Gustavo da Silva on June 7 and had another three-round bout against Rei Tsuruya the month before that. Fighting that many times in a short span should catch up to him eventually.
Key stat: Royval is 3-1 in his last four fights as an underdog.
Quick pick
Topuria vs. Oliveira over 1.5 rounds (-137): Oliveira was once the lightweight king, but he had that title taken from him after losing to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280.
Now, he has a chance to reclaim the throne against Topuria, who is one of the most exciting fighters on the promotion.
The Georgian cleaned out the featherweight division and has a perfect 16-0 record coming into this fight.
He has elite finishing skills, winning six of those by knockout and eight by submission. Still, I think he will have his hands full in securing an early finish against Oliveira.
Topuria hasn’t secured a finish in under 1.5 rounds since March of 2022 (five-fight stretch) when he knocked out Jai Herbert 1:07 into the second round.
He needed three rounds to put out Max Holloway at UFC 308 and just over 1.5 against Alexander Volkanovski, who was moving up a weight class, in the fight before that.
Oliveira’s last two fights went to a decision, and he has only been finished once since 2017 — by Makhachev.
Of course, there's a chance Oliveira knocks out Topuria, but that's coming in at +480. Topuria has seldom been knocked down and has an elite takedown defence (92%).
