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There's an onslaught of afternoon baseball on Thursday, and three of my four MLB prop bets come from the earlier action.
Today's MLB props narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers have a juicy matchup against a left-hander in a hitter-friendly park, which makes Tommy Edman an enticing player to back. Elsewhere, Cristopher Sanchez will be tasked with navigating a Houston Astros lineup that has arguably been the best in MLB against left-handed pitching.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 26, featuring predictions on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Grant Holmes.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Edman over 0.5 runs (-137)
Dating back to last season, the Dodgers have scored 43 runs in their past six games at Coors Field.
This is an offence I want a piece of on Thursday, but it’s difficult to buy in on any of the big names at a playable price.
Enter Edman, who’s one of the guys tasked with rolling over the lineup from the No. 8 or 9 spot. If he gets on base, I at least know that the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman isn’t far behind.
Edman’s overall numbers this year aren’t amazing, but his 104 OPS+ indicates that he’s been just on the right side of league average.
And in his past 15 games, he has a .345 OBP. That’s a solid clip given how many dangerous bats will follow.
Ohtani, Freeman and Betts are a combined 13-for-32 (.406) with three home runs, a triple and two doubles vs. Colorado starter Austin Gomber.
Pitching at Coors Field is a trying task for Gomber. In 228.0 innings at home since 2022, Gomber has allowed a .306/.345/.545 slash line.
L.A. should have a big day offensively, and I expect Edman to be part of that.
Key stat: Edman, a switch-hitter, has an .820 OPS in his career against lefties.
Best MLB picks
Parlay: Sanchez over 3.5 Ks, under 18.5 outs (+117): I think this is a reasonable way to thread the needle on Sanchez, whose strikeout floor should be high enough to cash this ticket.
- Sanchez has 4+ Ks in 13 of 15 starts.
- He has gone under 18.5 outs in 10 of 15 starts and is averaging 17.5 outs/start.
The southpaw has gone over 18.5 outs in three straight games, so this might not be the best time to fade him in that regard. But now he'll face a Houston Astros lineup that crushes lefties.
Against LHPs, the Astros lead the league in SLG (.468) and wRC+ (127).
Crow-Armstrong over 1.5 total bases (+123): Crow-Armstrong draws a lot of his value from his glove, but he has plenty of pop in his bat, too.
The all-star-to-be ranks in the 91st percentile in xSLG (.535), per Baseball Savant.
He’s also in the 97th percentile in sprint speed, which means stretching a single into a double — or beating out an infield hit — is in play.
PCA is 14-10 vs. this prop market in his past 24 games, posting an .897 OPS in that span.
The left-hitting centre fielder will have the platoon advantage against St. Louis righty Andre Pallante, too. Crow-Armstrong has a .482 SLG in his career vs. RHPs (compared to a .376 SLG vs. LHPs).
Braves vs. Mets prop bet
Holmes over 5.5 Ks (-136): Holmes is the definition of a late bloomer, tearing it up as a 29-year-old in his second MLB season.
The 2014 first-round draftee has a 3.71 ERA and a 10.3 K/9 for the Braves, but he's been especially effective since the start of May:
- Before May 1: 4.50 ERA, 8.4 K/9
- Since May 1: 3.32 ERA, 11.2 K/9
Holmes has had issues with walks, but he's facing an impatient New York Mets squad tonight.
Over the past month, New York has the ninth-highest strikeout rate and the 10th-lowest walk rate in MLB.
Holmes has worked into the sixth inning or later in 12 of his past 13 starts. With that in mind, clearing a 5.5-strikeout line should be well within reach.
MLB prop picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 06/26/2025.
