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I'm targeting two Atlanta Braves hitters for Thursday's series finale at Citi Field.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta can take three of four from the rival New York Mets with a win on the road tonight. I at least like the Braves' bats to come through against struggling starter Griffin Canning and expect Matt Olson and Austin Riley to get in on the action.
Check out my favourite Braves vs. Mets prop picks for the June 26 game in New York.
Braves vs. Mets prop bets
Best bet: Olson over 1.5 total bases (+128)
The power-hitting first baseman is having his best month of the season and will enjoy a platoon advantage tonight.
This is a no-brainer play for me at this price.
- Olson is batting .308/.444/.538 this month with 12 extra-base hits and 21 RBI. He has season-best marks in all three slash categories.
- The 31-year-old hasn’t had pronounced splits the last couple of seasons, but he’s still a preferable play against right-handers. He has a career .884 OPS vs. RHPs (.802 vs. LHPs).
Olson is 5-for-12 this series with a pair of doubles and has shaved a couple of percentage points off his K rate this season.
He’ll face a non-elite K arm in Canning, who enters with a career-high hard-hit rate.
I’ll note that Canning has fanned Olson seven times in 19 career plate appearances, but the 2023 MLB home run leader has tagged him twice and slugged .611.
Canning was sitting on a stellar 2.36 ERA through eight starts on May 11, but expected regression — he had a 4.96 ERA over the last three seasons — has caught up to him.
Key stat: In seven starts since, Canning has a 5.97 ERA and has pitched significantly worse at home this season.
Best MLB picks
Riley over 0.5 RBI (+148): Olson has been hot, but leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. has been even hotter (1.183 OPS in June).
If Riley sticks in the No. 3 or 4 spots of the lineup, where he’s been the last eight games, that means he’ll be hitting behind those two studs.
I expect Canning to struggle in the series finale, making the RBI market enticing. And this looks like a fair price to back a middle-of-the-order bat.
Riley has been quiet this month and isn’t enjoying his finest season, but he remains in a great run-producing spot ahead of on-base threats.
Despite a dip in power, Riley is hitting a solid .272 with a below-average walk rate, so I like the free-swinger's ability to put the ball in play.
Braves vs. Mets prop picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET on 06/26/2025.
