Sports Insights

MLB home run picks June 26: Best bets and predictions to go deep on Thursday

Mike Yastrzemski has an .811 career OPS against right-handed pitchers in his career. Photo by Jeff Chiu/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 26, 2025

BET FINDER: Search & Bet!

Bobby Witt Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski are my MLB home run picks for Thursday afternoon.

Today's MLB HR narrative: Neither player is in a particularly HR-friendly venue, but there are other factors that have my attention. Yastrzemski has the platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher, while Witt is looking to build on an emerging hot streak.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 26.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Witt to hit a home run (+340)

Witt is more of a gap-to-gap power guy rather than a home run hitter, but I think he's in a decent spot to come through on Thursday.

There's a solid breeze blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium, clocked at 12-14 mph, per Swish Analytics.

All but one of Witt's 10 homers this season were hit to the pull side (i.e., left field), so that wind should help.

Ironically, the lone opposite-field HR for Witt this season came against today's opposing pitcher, Shane Baz.

Baz is no stranger to giving up hard contact. He ranks in the 40th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, barrel rate and xERA.

Witt tends to struggle most against sliders from right-handed pitchers. But Baz’s struggles with his slider against right-hitting players is even worse.

Righties are 9-for-21 (.429) with six home runs off Baz’s slider. Ideally, he’ll turn Witt’s weakness into a strength.

Witt is MLB’s doubles leader (27), but hopefully today’s windy conditions can push an extra-base knock over the wall.

Key stat: Witt has a .333/.368/.639 slash line in his past nine games, with a pair of HRs in that span.

Best HR predictions

Yastrzemski to hit a home run (+510): Miami’s Janson Junk is a nice pitcher to target for home run props, even if Oracle Park isn’t a HR-friendly venue.

Among 363 qualified pitchers, Junk has allowed the third-highest average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and the second-highest hard-hit rate (53.7%).

Batting from the left side, Yastrzemski will have the platoon advantage against the right-handed Junk. Yastrzemski has an .811 OPS vs. RHPs in his career, while Junk has allowed an .886 OPS to LHHs.

Over his past 14 games, Yastrzemski has a .340/.429/.553 slash line and a pair of home runs.

MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/25/2025.

All odds shown in this article are from Northstarbets.ca: The odds presented in this article are sourced from Northstarbets.ca, the producer of this content. Please note that odds may vary and are subject to change. Odds units and offers are advertisements and promotions from Northstarbets.ca: Any odds units and offers mentioned within this content are advertisements and promotions provided by Northstarbets.ca. These promotions are subject to terms and conditions, and readers are encouraged to review them before participating. This blog and article is owned and controlled by Northstarbets.ca: This blog and article are owned and controlled by Northstarbets.ca and are intended for commercial purposes. The content is created to provide statistics & analysis for global sporting events, highlight odds and offers available on Northstarbets.ca and may contain promotional material.