Let's dive into Monday's Qatar Open action and see what wagers bettors should look to make.
The pregame narrative: Jiri Lehecka and Grigor Dimitrov meet in one of Monday's more competitive matches on paper. I'm betting on the former to blow by the latter, however, in rather convincing fashion. Elsewhere, I'm backing underdogs Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov.
Check out my top Qatar Open picks for the Round of 32.
Qatar Open picks
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Best Bet: Lehecka -1.5 sets (+188)
I don't mind the play on Leheckha to win at -137, but I prefer the extra value of backing him to win in straight sets.
Lehecka is off to a strong start in 2025. He's a dominant 10-2 on the hardcourts this year, including a tournament win at the Brisbane International.
The Czech star relies heavily on his efficient serve for results. Lehecka is 23rd among all ATP players in aces per match across the last 52 weeks (8.1) and is only committing 2.6 double faults per match.
He holds an edge in both categories over his opponent. Dimitrov is averaging 7.9 aces per contest and is committing more double faults per match (3.7).
Where Lehecka will really pull away from Dimitrov is in the clutch moments of this match.
- Lehecka is second among all ATP players in deciding sets won percentage over the last 52 weeks (80.0%).
- Lehecka is eighth in break points saved percentage (69.6%).
Dimitrov's serve will have its moments, but ultimately, don't be surprised when the better player wins in straight sets.
Key stat: Lehecka has won three consecutive matches against Dimitrov, taking two without dropping a set.
Quick picks
Berrettini +1.5 sets (+100): Berrettini will have his hands full with Novak Djokovic.
The Italian, after all, has never beaten the tennis legend (0-4). I don't need him to win the match to cash this wager, though. I just need him to keep it tight.
And Berrettini has been able to do that against the Serbian. Berrettini has won a set in each of the last three clashes between these two veterans, winning the first set in each of their last two showdowns.
This is a good wager to make with a player like Berrettini because he's a heavy server and is capable of dominating matches for stretches when he's in a groove. He's seventh among all ATP players in aces over the last 52 weeks (10.1 per match) and is committing just 1.6 double faults per contest.
Berrettini is also a difficult player to break, leading the ATP in break points saved percentage (72.7%).
Khachanov +1.5 sets (-137): Khachanov is a fine player, but this wager has more to do with his opponent.
Daniil Medvedev is one of the most dangerous tennis players on the planet when he's on his game. He hasn't been lately, however, and that's led to some uncharacteristic results.
Medvedev is an underwhelming 4-3 this year. He followed up his runner-up finish at the Australian Open in 2024 with a second-round exit at this year's event.
He could struggle against a fellow Russian in Khachanov who knows him well. The two have squared off seven times as professionals, and although Medvedev has five wins, Khachanov did win the most recent battle between the two.
A strong serving day from Khachanov could do the trick. He ranks 18th in serve rating among all ATP competitors over the last 52 weeks.
Qatar Open picks made at 3:34 p.m. on 02/16/25
