Canada needs a win over Finland to advance to the Four Nations Face-Off final.
The pregame narrative: Both countries enter this game with an overtime win and a loss on their ledger. A regulation victory for either side will lock them into a date with Team USA. I'm betting on Canada to get the job done, taking the over, and backing Brad Marchand to score in this ticket.
Check out my Canada vs. Finland same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 17.
Canada vs. Finland predictions
Parlay: Canada ML | Marchand to score | Over 5.5 goals (+500)
Canada ML (-400): Bettors looking for a straight wager should consider finding ways to bet Finland in this game. But in this same-game parlay, I'm fine adding Canada moneyline despite paying some significant juice.
Canada's elite offence has the tools to overpower a thin, Finnish defence. The Finns have struggled between the pipes, also, as both Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen have played.
Simply put, Finland has no match for Canada's upper echelon of talent. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby are complete game-breakers, and Finland will have a difficult time stopping them.
Other parlay picks
Marchand to score (+290): This wager significantly lengthens the odds of this parlay, but I think there's good value here.
Marchand already has a goal in this tournament and I expect his role to expand significantly after Canada's offensive struggles against the USA.
The Canadians scored just one goal in the emotional loss and Marchand played a little more than eight minutes of ice time (8:23). That's simply not going to cut it.
Marchand was one of the few Canadian forwards who was able to break through the Americans' strong defensive wall and provide his team with opportunities. Only three Canadian players finished Saturday's game with more shots than him.
The alternate captain has chemistry with some of Canada's top-six forwards, as he trains with Crosby and MacKinnon in the offseason. Whether uniting the trio is something head coach Jon Cooper decides to do or not, slotting Marchand up in the lineup seems like a no-brainer.
Even a slight uptick in opportunity will put some value on this wager.
Over 5.5 goals (-152): Thirdly, I'm expecting the two sides to surpass this teased-down total.
This is a play on the uncertainty surrounding Finland's defence and goaltending. Here are the Finns' projected defensive pairings for Monday:
- Niko Mikkola and Esa Lindell
- Olli Maatta and Henri Jokiharju
- Urho Vaakanainen and Nikolas Matinpalo
That group should have a difficult time containing Canada's top forwards, which could lead to a strong scoring output by the Canadians.
Conversely, Canada has allowed three goals in both tournament games so far. Finland should be able to contribute to this total and get it over the number.
Picks made at 12:21 p.m. ET 02/16/2025.
