After cashing a +382 college basketball parlay yesterday, let's see if I can run it back during Sunday's action.
The pregame narrative: An alt total in a matchup between the Utah State Aggies and New Mexico Lobos serves as the backbone for my parlay. I also have alt spreads on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers and the Louisville Cardinals.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 16.
NCAA basketball predictions
Parlay: Utah St./New Mexico o157.5 pts | Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 | Louisville -3.5 (+282)
Utah State/New Mexico over 157.5 points (-155): Based on the odds, this is the riskiest pick on my three-leg ticket. If you look at the previous matchup between these teams, it's easy to see why.
On Feb. 1, New Mexico earned a blowout victory in a game with just 145 total points. But that was largely thanks to an uncharacteristic face-plant by Utah State's offence:
- 37.5 FG% (24-of-64)
- 16.1 3PT% (5-of-31)
- 43.5 FT% (10-of-23)
Brutal shooting nights happen sometimes, and that was one of them. But for an Aggies team that ranks 14th in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage (56.3%), I doubt that'll happen again on Sunday.
And one way or another, these teams should have plenty of chances to score because they both play fast and draw ample fouls.
New Mexico averages the third-fastest possession length and ranks 17th in free throws per game. Utah State averages the 47th-fastest possession length and ranks 45th in free throws per game.
BartTorvik.com projects Sunday's game to feature 164 total points.
Other parlay picks
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 (-215): I'll admit this is a bit of a sickos pick, but the rationale holds up.
Milwaukee went on the road last month and dominated the Northern Kentucky Norse, 74-54. Now they'll square up on the Panthers' home court, and all I'm asking for is a win by a tiny margin.
Despite being a relatively short team, the Panthers rebound exceptionally well:
- +10.7 average rebound margin per game
- 40.4% offensive rebound rate (2nd in D-I)
- 26.2% opponent offensive rebound rate (34th)
When these teams met up on Jan. 24, Milwaukee out-rebounded Northern Kentucky, 33-20.
So despite the Panthers' 18 turnovers in that game, they still won comfortably.
The Norse are 2-9-0 ATS on the road this year. I don't see how they scratch out a win today.
Louisville -3.5 (-190): Louisville is having a strong season and should land in the NCAA tournament.
The Cardinals (19-6, 12-2 ACC) lost five Quad 1 games in the first month-and-a-half, but they've put forth a stellar effort in conference play.
I can't say the same for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-13, 5-8 ACC), who needed double overtime to beat lowly Boston College on Wednesday and prevent a four-game losing streak.
Louisville and Notre Dame haven't met yet this season, but the chasm in their ACC results gives me faith in the Cardinals. Also, they've covered this spread in 11 straight games.
The Cards are experienced and balanced, with four seniors averaging 12.0 points or more.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 02/16/2025
