Shohei Ohtani has countless accolades as a pro, but he's never led MLB in home runs. Could that change this year?
The latest: Ohtani has the second-shortest odds (+600) to be MLB's HR leader, behind only Aaron Judge. I'm making a case for Ohtani to win this futures market, with Brent Rooker profiling as a compelling alternative.
Check out the latest MLB home run leader predictions ahead of the 2025 season.
MLB home run leader predictions
Check out the latest MLB home run leader odds. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
Best MLB home run leader odds
Best bet: Shohei Ohtani (+600)
The two players with odds inside of 12-to-1 are Ohtani and Judge, who led their respective leagues in homers last season.
So I'm not exactly sticking my neck out with this pick.
But at 6-to-1, the case for Ohtani is still awfully compelling — and hopefully lucrative.
Ohtani has been a consistently spectacular masher for four consecutive seasons:
- 45 HRs per year
- .602 SLG
- .984 OPS
- 99th or 100th percentile xSLG in all four seasons
The 30-year-old's finest work came last season, when he became the charter member of the 50-50 club. And his NL-best .646 SLG was actually a slight underperformance on his xSLG (.660), per Baseball Savant.
When comparing Ohtani to Judge, there's one key reason why I prefer the slightly longer odds accompanying the Los Angeles Dodgers' two-way superstar: lineup protection.
Ohtani is slated to bat ahead of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, all of whom were all-stars with .840-or-better OPS rates last season.
It's less likely that opponents will want to pitch around Ohtani compared to Judge, who no longer bats alongside Juan Soto.
Both stars are largely durable, but Ohtani has played 150-plus games in three of the past four seasons and is two years younger.
When you're talking about the two best HR hitters in the world, details like that could be what makes the difference.
Key stat: Ohtani has the most HRs in the majors over the past two seasons (98). Judge (94) is the only other player with 90-plus homers in that span.
MLB HR leader long shot pick
Brent Rooker (+3,000)
If you want a long shot, Rooker is your guy. He's a certified slugger who should be in a much friendlier offensive environment this season compared to the past two years.
Rooker put up back-to-back 30-homer seasons for the Oakland Athletics despite playing in a pitcher's paradise.
According to Baseball Savant, the Oakland Coliseum was the fifth-worst ballpark for righties to hit home runs during the 2024 campaign. Damp, mild weather conditions played a role in that, as did the Coliseum's expansive foul territory.
So what's in store for Rooker at Sacramento's Sutter Health Park? We won't really know until we see it.
But Sacramento is known to be much hotter in the summer, and its foul territory is on par with standard MLB parks. The outfield dimensions will be about the same, though right field is five feet shorter at Sutter than at the Coliseum.
Park factors are one thing, but they aren't everything. Rooker can tattoo a baseball in any stadium.
Last season, the 30-year-old blasted a career-high 39 dingers while finishing in the 97th percentile in barrel rate (16.6%) and xSLG (.557).
MLB HR leader notes
- I'm not sold on Kyle Schwarber (+1,200) at his price point, but he's a three-true-outcome guy who plays in a very homer-friendly park. So he's at least worth having on your radar. Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park was the second-friendliest HR environment for lefties last year, and three other Phillies divisional opponents rank in the top half of MLB. Schwarber has elite bat speed and posted a 96th-percentile barrel rate (15.6%) last year.
- Which Adolis Garcia (+2,500) will show up this year? The all-star and ALCS MVP from 2023, or the whiff-heavy disappointment from a season ago? Garcia flirted with a 40-homer season in 2023 and would at least be in the HR leader conversation if he did it again. It helps that he plays at Globe Life Field, which was the fourth-friendliest home run environment for righties last year.
