Manchester City host Newcastle United for a huge Premier League match at the Etihad on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: These clubs sit fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Premiership with 41 points and City is ahead thanks to goal difference. The Magpies are surging and I like them to pick up a point away from home even with Erling Haaland finding the score sheet.
Check out my Manchester City vs. Newcastle United same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 15.
Manchester City vs. Newcastle United predictions
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Parlay: Newcastle United double result | Haaland to score or give an assist | Isak 1+ SOT (+525)
Newcastle United double result (-110): It's been a nightmarish run for Pep Guardiola's side.
The Citizens set a winning standard over the past decade and have fallen woefully short this season. Injuries — specifically the loss of reigning Ballon d'Or winner Rodri — have played a big part but key players are out of form and seem rudderless.
In the last two weeks, City took debatedly its two worst losses of the season:
- Feb. 2 at Arsenal: 5-1 loss
- Feb. 11 vs. Real Madrid: 3-2 loss
City had a 2-1 lead late against Madrid but capitulated while surrendering a whopping 3.42 xG, per Opta Analyst.
That's nothing new, as the squad ranks a pedestrian 10th in xG conceded (34.2) in the EPL.
Newcastle has won 12 of its last 14 games across all competitions while averaging 2.57 goals. The Magpies rank fifth in xG (41.7) in the Premiership and already forced a 1-1 draw against City in the reverse fixture earlier this year.
I expect a draw at worst from Eddie Howe's boys.
Other SGP legs
Haaland to score or give an assist (-136): Taking Haaland to score might seem counterintuitive but a 2-2 or 3-3 draw is firmly in play here.
City might not be able to defend but it certainly doesn't have trouble scoring — and Haaland is at the forefront of the attack:
- Man City ranks fourth in xG (44.9) and big chances (74) in the EPL.
- Haaland has 19 goals and two assists in 24 league matches.
- He's scored or assisted in five of his last six matches across all competitions.
Newcastle has given up five goals in its last four games — even while winning three — so don't expect it to be perfect on Saturday.
Isak 1+ SOT (-235): Finally, I'm backing Alexander Isak to record a shot on target.
- Isak leads his team with 17 goals and 30 SOT in 22 league appearances.
- His 14.1 xG is third to only Mo Salah and Haaland while his 1.6 SOT/90 ranks ninth.
- Isak has cleared this bet in 11 of his last 15 starts across all competitions.
City just allowed 12 shot attempts to Arsenal and 20 to Real Madrid. Isak should be able to find the target at least once.
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 2/13/25.
