I've got four NBA prop bets for Thursday's NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: James Harden, Jamal Murray and Paolo Banchero all draw favourable matchups and I expect them to score. Ayo Dosunmu also has solid value to can a pair of 3s.
Check out how I'm betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 20.
Best NBA prop bets
Best bet: Harden over 20.5 points (-120)
Harden isn't shooting the lights out but he is shooting with volume, which I love to see.
The veteran guard is averaging 21.5 points on 39.5% shooting while taking 15.9 shots a game. That's led to him clearing this line frequently, even if it hasn't been efficient.
- Harden is averaging 22.6 points in his last 10 games.
- He's 7-3 against this line in that span while playing 37.3 minutes a night.
Harden exploded for 40 points the last time he played the Milwaukee Bucks, tonight's opponent, on Jan. 25.
Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell both played, so it's not like he was unnaturally thrust into a primary scoring position.
Milwaukee has been horrible at defending point guards since acquiring Damian Lillard and I expect Harden to exploit that weakness.
Key stat: The Bucks allow the most PPG (26.9) to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Murray over 21.5 points (-115): The biggest risk betting on Thursday's Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets matchup is blowout potential.
Charlotte is a 16-point underdog after beating the Los Angeles Lakers last night. But the Hornets have been pesky lately and I expect them to keep things somewhat close.
They own a 6-3-0 ATS record on no rest this season and played the Nuggets tight on Feb. 1., narrowly losing 107-104.
Murray scored 20 in that game on 8-of-16 shooting, part of a solid 10-game stretch he rode into the all-star break capped by a career-high 55 points against the Portland Trail Blazers.
- Denver's PG is averaging 25.9 PPG across his last 10 games on 53.1% shooting.
- He scored 20+ points 7 times and 23+ points 5 times.
Charlotte owns the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA and Murray takes 46% of his shots from that area of the court (ranking in the 84th percentile of all players), per Cleaning the Glass.
Back a pair of young guns
Banchero over 24.5 points (-103): I backed Banchero to clear this point total as part of a +295 parlay which you can read about here. But let me give you some CliffsNotes:
- The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to power forwards.
- Banchero scored 24 and 31 points in his last two games (20+ FGA in both).
- He's cleared this mark in three straight games against Atlanta, scoring 30-plus points twice.
Orlando's superstar has been slumping since returning from an injury but this is a good spot for him to snap out of it.
Dosunmu over 1.5 threes (-103): The Chicago Bulls are finally rebuilding. Zach LaVine is out of the door and his volume — specifically his 7.3 three-point attempts — will have to be replaced.
I think Dosunmu is the man for the job.
The fourth-year guard has hit at least one 3 in 12 of his last 13 games, clearing this mark seven times.
Tonight, he takes on a New York Knicks team with the worst 3-point defence (37.8%) in the NBA. Dosunmu hit two 3s against them earlier this year with LaVine in the lineup.
Picks made at 8:59 a.m. ET on 02/20/2025.
