Two teams fighting for a play-in spot meet on Thursday when the San Antonio Spurs host the Phoenix Suns.
The pregame narrative: San Antonio hobbled into the all-star break and Phoenix wasn't much better. Neither side is playing solid defence, so I'll turn to the over alongside a pair of prop bets on Victor Wembanyama and Devin Booker.
Check out my +325 Suns vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 20.
Suns vs. Spurs predictions
Editor's note: Victor Wembanyma is listed as doubtful with an illness as of the NBA's 9:30 a.m. injury report on Feb. 20.
Parlay: Over 229.5 points | Wembanyama 25+ points | Booker over 1.5 threes (+325)
Over 229.5 points (-114): As it stands, neither Phoenix (26-28) nor San Antonio (23-29) would make the play-in. There's plenty of season left but each team needs to kick things into gear quickly.
Over the last 15 games, neither squad has inspired much confidence:
- Spurs: 5-10 record, 27th in D rating
- Suns: 7-8 record, 21st in D rating
Taking the over has a lot to do with those defensive ratings, but I'm also keyed in on each team's pace (number of possessions per 48 minutes) in the same span.
The Spurs are playing at the fifth-fastest pace (101.3) while the Suns are 17th (99.3).
Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in plenty of overs for San Antonio.
The over is 12-3 in its last 15 games. Phoenix doesn't play quite as fast and loose but the over is still 7-3 in its last 10, and 9-6 in its last 15.
SGP legs
Wembanyama over 25+ points (+116): I expect Wembanyama to lead to the scoring charge.
The French phenom is averaging 24.3 PPG this year. He entered the break in a bit of a rut, clearing this line just once in his last five games (while also landing on 24 points once).
But he cleared this line in three of five games prior, never finishing below 20 points.
Wemby has a unique skill set — being 7-foot-4 with a jumper — that makes him a nightmare to defend. And with the way Phoenix is playing, I like his chances of having a night.
The Suns also allow the fourth-most PPG to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
Booker 2+ threes (-315): Booker missed Phoenix's last game with an injury so I'm hoping he'll suit up with a week of rest.
And maybe the rest was much-needed considering the shooting slump he was in from beyond the arc. Booker is shooting 28.9% from deep this month but still cleared this line in four of six games.
That's because he's averaging a healthy 6.3 attempts per night, putting us in a great spot volume-wise.
The Spurs are a middle-of-the-pack team at defending the perimeter so I love this leg's outlook if Booker keeps on firing.
Picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 02/19/2025.
