Last season started slow for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but it ended red hot. He slugged his way to 30 homers, 103 RBI and a fourth consecutive all-star selection.
In what could be Guerrero's final season with the Toronto Blue Jays, will he top his 2024 production?
Check out the latest Guerrero futures markets, including his MVP odds, for the 2025 MLB season.
Guerrero futures markets
Check out the latest Vlad Jr. futures markets. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
| Vlad Jr. futures markets | Betting odds |
| Over 169.5 hits | -110 |
| Under 169.5 hits | -110 |
| Over 31.5 home runs | -110 |
| Under 31.5 home runs | -110 |
| Over 89.5 RBI | -110 |
| Under 89.5 RBI | -110 |
MLB odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on 02/19/2024.
Guerrero set a deadline with the Blue Jays for contract extension talks, and that deadline passed without a deal. Hopefully that gives him some peace of mind for now, even if the status of the free-agent-to-be will loom over Jays fans all season.
One thing is certain: If Vladdy hits like he did last year, it'll be a boon for his earnings potential.
Despite dragging a sub-.700 OPS into early May, Guerrero righted the ship and finished as one of MLB's top hitters. His post-all-star surge was particularly heartening:
- 2024 first half (96 games): .289 BA, .818 OPS, 14 HRs
- 2024 second half (63 games): .376 BA, 1.127 OPS, 16 HRs
Was the turnaround a fluke? It sure doesn't seem like it.
According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero ranked in the 97th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Odds to win AL MVP
At +1,500, Guerrero sits in sixth place on the preseason AL MVP odds leaderboard.
Sixth is where he finished in voting last year when he accrued 6.2 bWAR. Aaron Judge, the unanimous MVP, finished with 10.8 bWAR.
Judge (+275) is the frontrunner again, with Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) close behind. One challenge for Vladdy is that he's primarily a first baseman — a non-premier defensive position — which caps his value in the field.
We've seen an MVP-calibre ceiling from Guerrero, but it's been a few years. In 2021, he led the AL in home runs (48) and OPS (1.002) in a runner-up finish behind Shohei Ohtani.
Guerrero best futures bet
Best Bet: Guerrero over 89.5 RBI (-110)
For any season-long futures bet, availability is key. You can't pile up stats if you can't stay on the field.
In Vladdy's case, that hasn't been a problem. He's only missed 12 total games over the past four seasons.
Unsurprisingly, that impeccable attendance has resulted in some superb RBI stats.
- Guerrero has 94+ RBI in four straight seasons.
- For his career, the infielder has averaged 100 RBI on a per-162 basis.
Guerrero opened the 2024 season in the No. 2 spot in Toronto's lineup, which isn't optimal for driving in runs. But after a slow start, he was bumped down to the No. 3 spot, where he had far more success.
Vladdy's power stroke means he can drive runs in from any spot in the order, but I'm hoping he spends most of the season in the No. 3 spot again — with either Bo Bichette or Anthony Santander ahead of him.
Since 2021, Guerrero has averaged 101 RBI per season. For a guy who has excelled at staying on the field — and hitting the snot out of the baseball — this line seems low to me.
Key stat: Last year, Guerrero had 151 at-bats with runners in scoring position (t-12th in MLB).
Pick made at 2:30 p.m. on 02/19/25.
