The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are back in action tonight, and they slot into my three-leg, +375 parlay.
The pregame narrative: I expect a dominant home win for Auburn against the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks. Elsewhere, the Rice Owls should at least hang tough against the UAB Blazers.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 19.
NCAA basketball predictions
Parlay: Rice +4.5 | Oregon/Iowa o156.5 points | Auburn -12.5 (+375)
Rice +4.5 (-117): Rice is 1-10 in its last 11 games, which is an awfully bleak starting point for this pick. But it's not like the Owls are getting trampled by their fellow American Athletic Conference foes.
- In eight of those 10 conference losses, the Owls lost by six or fewer points.
- Rice is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games as an underdog.
The Owls need to live at the free-throw line to succeed on Wednesday. They've scored 23.6% of their points at the charity stripe this season, which is the 15th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.
Defensively, Rice needs to handle UAB Blazers centre Yaxel Lendeborg. The 6-foot-9 senior is averaging 21.0 points over his past 10 games.
As it turns out, interior defence is Rice's strength. The Owls are allowing a 47.2% field goal percentage from 2-point range, which ranks 47th in D-I. They have three players who are 6-foot-9 or taller that can hopefully limit Lendeborg.
KenPom and BartTorvik.com project UAB to win by one point and two points, respectively.
Other parlay picks
Oregon/Iowa over 156.5 points (-150): The Iowa Hawkeyes play fast and shoot well. And their opponent tonight should be able to follow suit.
Let's start with Iowa, a team that averages the 11th-fastest offensive possession in the country (15.4 seconds). Combine that with its eighth-ranked effective FG% (57.1), and you're looking at a team that can seriously score.
What the Hawkeyes can't do is defend the paint. Opponents have a 56.5 2PT% against them, which ranks 344th in D-I.
Here's hoping that the Oregon Ducks' two frontcourt players — including 7-footer Nate Bittle — can capitalize against an Iowa lineup with zero starters taller than 6-foot-8.
Overs have cashed in four of the Duck's past five road games. Collectively, overs are 29-22 this year for these schools.
Auburn -12.5 (-190): Auburn padded its resume as the No. 1 team in the country over the weekend, winning convincingly as a slight underdog against then-No. 2 Alabama.
The Tigers (23-2, 11-1 SEC) have the toughest strength of schedule and they've risen well above it.
- Auburn is 16-9 ATS, including 5-1 ATS in its past six games.
- The Tigers' average point differential is +16.7 points.
The Arkansas Razorbacks (15-10, 4-8) rarely lose by this margin, but they also haven't seen Auburn yet this year.
Last season, Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara combined for 30 points in an 83-51 win over Arkansas. Broom and Baker-Mazara are still the top dogs at Auburn, which helps make this spread attainable.
Arkansas is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 02/19/2025
