The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide look to bounce back on Wednesday night in a road matchup against the No. 15 Missouri Tigers.
The pregame narrative: Alabama hasn't had back-to-back losses all season, and I don't expect that to start now. I'm backing the Tide to win and the over to cash.
Check out my Alabama vs. Missouri picks for the men's college basketball matchup on Feb. 19.
Alabama vs. Missouri picks
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Best Bet: Over 170.5 points (-112)
I can't quit Alabama overs.
- Alabama is the No. 1 scoring team in NCAA Division I (90.3 PPG), aided in large part by it's No. 1 ranking in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com.
- The Tide rank 3rd in 2PT% (60.3) and 4th in free throws per game (26.8).
The average total in Alabama games this year is 169.4 points. So when the right matchup comes along, clearing a 170.5-point line is a perfectly attainable ask.
Missouri fits the bill as an overs-friendly team, ranking 20th in points per game (82.6) and third in free throw attempts (27.2/game).
Tempo matters a lot when you're dealing with a projected total this high because you need tons of possessions to score a ton of points. Alabama has proven it can push the pace.
Aside from the Tide, four other SEC schools rank in the top 65 in terms of shortest average offensive possession. Alabama has faced three of those schools, and each of its matchups totalled 185-plus points.
Missouri ranks 66th, and I expect another track meet.
Key stat: Alabama has gone over this total in eight of its past 13 games, averaging 173.1 points in those matchups.
Quick picks
Alabama moneyline (-105): Alabama was on the wrong end of a 1 versus 2 matchup over the weekend against Auburn, but I'd still take the Tide over pretty much any other SEC school right now (aside from Florida and maybe Tennessee).
Alabama is 6-0 in SEC road games this year and 8-1 on the road overall. Its only blemish was against No. 13 Purdue way back in November.
Is Missouri justified as a slight favourite tonight?
The Tigers have as many losses in the past month as the Tide have since U.S. Thanksgiving.
Alabama ranks higher than Missouri in both adjusted offensive efficiency (third vs. 11th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (39th vs. 44th).
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 02/19/2025.
