The Premier League reaches Matchday 26 and I have two picks for this weekend.
The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Liverpool are the top-two scoring teams in England but I'm opting to side with defence in a matchup between powerhouse opponents. My other pick is on Everton which has been red-hot since making a managerial change.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 26 picks.
EPL Matchday 26 picks
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Best Bet: Manchester City/Liverpool under 3.5 goals (-127)
Let's start by noting that Liverpool scores the most goals (2.4) per game in the EPL while Manchester City scores the second most (2.1).
So why take the under? Well, the first game played between these sides on Dec. 1 ended in 2-0 in favour of Liverpool. In that match, the Reds held Man City to just two shots on goal.
Each of the two meetings last season also finished below this total.
According to Fotmob, Liverpool is tied for the most clean sheets (10), concedes the second-fewest goals (1.0) per game, and has the second-fewest xG against (24.1).
I expect a more cautious approach from the Reds on the road where I believe they can shut down a middling Manchester City side.
Key stat: Liverpool has allowed one or fewer goals in 17 of 26 EPL games this season. It also has a clean sheet victory in the UCL league phase vs. Real Madrid.
Quick pick
Everton to win (+160): This is as simple as buying in on England's hottest team.
Everton parted ways with manager Sean Dyche in early January and it appears a move should've been made earlier.
The club brought back David Moyes and it's working wonders so far. Moyes managed Everton from 2002-2013 and he had a winning record during that tenure (218-139-161).
Since rejoining as manager, Moyes' group is 4-1-1 in the EPL with a draw in the Merseyside Derby that sent Everton's fans into a frenzy.
It's hard to blame them after their side's been fighting to avoid relegation for the past few seasons.
And now the Toffees are climbing the EPL standings, currently sitting in 14th place, one position ahead of Manchester United.
The Red Devils have been struggling mightily, losing three of their past four Premier League fixtures.
I would've avoided Everton like the plague just over a month ago and now the side found a new gear and is looking like the Moyes-led teams of years past.
Picks made at 2:22 p.m. on 02/20/25.
