Two of the very best in the Big East square off Sunday, as the No. 9 St. John's Red Storm host the No. 24 Creighton Bluejays.
The pregame narrative: Instead of picking a side, I'm riding with both defences to keep scoring to a minimum this afternoon. From the player prop market, I'm looking to back Creighton's Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Check out my Creighton vs. St. John's predictions for the men's college basketball matchup on Feb. 16.
Creighton vs. St. John's predictions
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Parlay: Under 145.5 points | Ashworth 15+ points | Kalbrenner 8+ rebounds (+320)
Under 145.5 points (-177): These programs both boast elite defences, and that was certainly on display when they last met on New Year's Eve.
That day, Creighton eked out a 57-56 win on home court. There were only 13 total free throw attempts in the game.
Limited freebies at the line is Creighton's finest skill. The team allows the second-fewest attempted free throws in NCAA Division I (11.0/game). The Bluejays are also 16th in opponent eFG% (45.7).
The true defensive stalwart in this matchup is St. John's, though. Just take a moment to marvel at these defensive rankings:
- 2nd in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com
- 7th in 2PT%
- 9th in block rate
- 14th in turnover rate
St. John's opponents average the 28th-longest offensive possession time, which is at least somewhat tied to the Red Storm's unwillingness to give up anything easy.
Today's game would need a 33-point uptick from the last head-to-head matchup to hit this over. I don't expect that with two defensively sound programs on the floor.
SGP legs
Ashworth 15+ points (-210): If you want to know how much trust Creighton has in its fifth-year point guard, peep his stat line from when the Bluejays last faced St. John's.
Ashworth had a career-high 10 turnovers — more turnovers than St. John's committed as a team — and yet he still buried a game-high 18 points on 18 shots.
It was far from his most efficient outing, but he had enough volume to counteract a comedy of errors.
Creighton has asked more of Ashworth this year than many would've expected. But a season-ending injury for Pop Isaacs in December necessitated the extra workload.
Since Dec. 7, when Isaacs was sidelined indefinitely, here's what Ashworth has accomplished as a scorer:
- 17.2 PPG
- 50.7/35.9/96.8 shooting
- 15+ points in 11/16 games
Kalkbrenner 8+ rebounds (-167): Only three players in Big East history have earned Defensive Player of the Year honours three times: Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning and Kalkbrenner.
How's that for some elite company?
The 7-foot-1 centre knows how to protect the rim as well as anyone in D-I, and he's a strong force on the glass. Kalkbrenner leads the conference in rebounding (8.5 boards/game).
Everyone in St. John's standard rotation is 6-foot-9 or shorter, so Kalkbrenner will have a clear size advantage.
He put that advantage to good use in the Dec. 31 matchup, snagging nine rebounds and 16 points on 8-of-12 shooting.
Kalkbrenner has cashed this bet in 11 of his past 12 games.
Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 02/16/2025
