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Every MLB team is in action on Friday, and I've picked two players to go deep during the loaded slate.
Today's MLB HR narrative: James Wood has been a bright spot on a terrible Washington Nationals squad, and has a plus matchup against the hard-throwing Jose Soriano at Angels Stadium. I also expect Jackson Chourio to take advantage of the thin air at Coors Field.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 27.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Wood to hit a home run (+450)
Wood is sixth in MLB in home runs (22), destroys right-handed pitching, and goes up against a guy who gives up plenty of hard contact — yeah, that'll play.
The 22-year-old is hitless in his last two outings but was on a five-game heater before that, batting .318 with four home runs.
Wood's numbers against righties are incredible (.280/.392/.575 slash line, 15 HR), and Soriano's advanced metrics suggest this is a perfect matchup:
- 35th percentile xBA (.259)
- 13th percentile hard-hit rate (46.5%)
- 12th percentile average exit velocity (91.2).
Soriano's main pitch is an upper-90s sinker, which he throws 51% of the time. And that is an offering Wood has seen well this season (stats vs. sinkers above 95 mph):
- .338 xBA
- .545 xSLG
- 45.5% hard-hit rate
Swish Analytics also projects the wind to blow out the left field at Angel Stadium at just under 8 mph tonight, which is a nice boost.
Key stat: Wood has a 98th percentile xSLG this season (.593).
Best HR predictions
Chourio to hit a home run (+500): Coors Field is a notorious hitter-friendly park, and the wind is blowing out to left-centre at over 10 mph on Friday.
With that said, I'm loving Chourio's +500 odds against an awful pitcher.
Kyle Freeland is projected to return tonight for the Colorado Rockies, and opponents have hit .387 against him at home. His 7.11 ERA at Coors Field is pretty poor, too.
The southpaw is also giving up a .494 SLG against righties, while Chourio is slugging an eye-popping .593 against lefties.
Chourio hit 21 home runs last year in a campaign which earned him third place on the NL ROTY ballot.
He also rarely takes walks, which means the ball should be put in play often and with authority.
MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/27/2025.
