The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines took care of one bitter rival last time out, and now they've got another one due up on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: Michigan hosts the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans in their first head-to-head matchup as top-15 teams since 2020. I'm backing the Wolverines to cover at Crisler Center and go over their projected point total.
Check out my Michigan State vs. Michigan picks for the men's college basketball matchup on Feb. 21.
Michigan State vs. Michigan picks
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Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 (-121)
In his first season as the head coach at Michigan, Dusty May has done a remarkable job ingratiating himself with Wolverines fans.
Not only are the Wolverines on an NCAA tournament trajectory after missing out the past two seasons, but they've yet to lose under May at home (12-0).
Overall, the Wolverines are 11-2 since Christmas. They should have the upper hand on the visiting Spartans tonight.
Michigan State's offence relies on interior shooting and free throws. Neither of those scoring avenues will come easy against Michigan.
- The Wolverines are massive up front, with Danny Wolf (7 feet) and Vladislav Goldin (7-foot-1) in the starting lineup.
- Michigan is the fifth-tallest team overall in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com. The Wolverines' opponents are shooting just 46.8% from 2-point range (34th-lowest in D-I).
- The Wolverines allow just a 28.3% free throw rate, calculated as free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts. That's the 65th-lowest rate in D-I.
On the flip side, Michigan's primary offensive weakness — turning over the ball — shouldn't be too much of a worry against Michigan State.
The Wolverines have the 34th-highest offensive turnover rate in the country, but the Spartans have the 55th-lowest defensive steals rate.
Michigan State is having a great season in its own right and won both of last year's matchups. But Michigan is a much different team now, thanks to May and some of the players he brought in, and I expect the Wolverines' home record to remain pristine.
Key stat: Michigan has covered a -2.5 spread in 10 of 12 home games. The Wolverines won by exactly two points in the outliers.
Quick pick
Michigan over 76.5 points (-115): The Wolverines average 81.6 points and are well-positioned to fill the net on Friday.
As stated, the Spartans struggle to force turnovers on defence, which should lead to fewer empty possessions for the Wolverines.
Also, both teams play fast. Michigan's average possession length (15.6 seconds) is the 20th-fastest in D-I. Michigan State ranks 106th in that regard.
Michigan tends to shoot a lot of 3-pointers, which likely won't be a winning strategy against a Michigan State squad that holds opponents to a 29.2 3PT% (10th in D-I).
With that said, the Wolverines' top scorers are their towering big men, Wolf and Goldin. I'm hoping Michigan will lean on them and exploit size mismatches down low.
Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 02/21/2025.
