The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as both teams return from the all-star break.
The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been ruled out, which has me eyeing Jalen Green's assist total. I will also back Anthony Edwards to clear his 3-point line even with unsavoury odds.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 21.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks
Best bet: Green over 3.5 assists (-118)
This seems too good to pass up.
Green is a scorer first and passer second, but he has dished the ball well when VanVleet is sidelined. Check out his stats in his last eight games without the point guard:
- 4.3 assists/game
- 3+ assists seven times
- 4+ assists six times
- 5+ assists five times
That's a super reliable floor to work with, and it gives me confidence he'll be around this number regardless of the opponent.
The Timberwolves are a stingy defensive team that allows the fifth-fewest assists per game. But Green racked up five helpers against them on Feb. 6 (without VanVleet), and I like his chances of doing so again.
Key stat: Green has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the T-Wolves while averaging 5.2 assists.
Quick pick
Edwards over 3.5 threes (-141): Am I in love with these odds? No. But I am a big fan of Edwards and know he's going to put us in a good position to cash this wager.
- Edwards is averaging 4.1 threes per game on 10.1 attempts (41.4%).
- In February, those numbers are up to 4.8 threes per game on 13.3 attempts (36.3%).
- He's hit 3+ threes in eight straight games, cashing this bet five times.
On the season, Ant Man is 35-19 against this line (65.8%). That exceeds the 58.5% implied probability of this wager.
He's played Houston three times this year and cleared this line twice while shooting 3-for-12 from deep in the outlier.
Picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET 02/21/2025.
