Canada and USA meet at the Bell Centre in Montreal for an epic 4 Nations Face-Off showdown on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: It's been ages since we've seen these squads play in a best-on-best format so you won't want to miss this. Both countries won their opening games and I expect Canada to keep this one close, at worst. Bet on Connor McDavid to score and an alternate under as well.
Check out my Canada vs. USA same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 15.
Canada vs. USA predictions
Parlay: Canada +1.5 | McDavid to score | Under 7.5 goals (+375)
Canada +1.5 (-278): Canadian hockey fans got a little bit of everything in its opener against Sweden.
The Canucks lept out to an early lead with a Nathan MacKinnon power-play goal assisted by Sidney Crosby and McDavid and kept pressing through the first period.
They took a 2-0 lead into the break and held Sweden to just three shots.
But the Swedes gave some pushback and Canada ultimately won 4-3 in overtime thanks to Mitch Marner. We saw how good Canada could be in the opening frame and I expect more of that and less of the rest against the USA.
Canada has won 26 straight games with Crosby in the lineup so I can't picture them losing by margin against the Americans.
The U.S. handed Finland a 6-1 beatdown on Thursday but that game was also close heading into the dying minutes of the second period.
Finland's defensive corps is easily the worst in the tournament, though, and the Canadians should keep things much tighter while edging out the puck possession battle with McDavid, MacKinnon and Brayden Point down the middle of the ice.
Canada has a 14-4-1 all-time record against the U.S. but most of these players weren't involved in those matchups. Still, I'll give the edge to the Canadians on home ice.
SGP legs
McDavid to score (+175): McDavid had just one assist in Canada's opener and I think it's time for the world's best player to arrive in style.
The Edmonton Oilers superstar led all Canadian forwards in ice time and is playing alongside Marner and Sam Reinhart.
He was also double-shifted with Crosby and MacKinnon at points.
And most importantly, he's on an absolutely lethal power-play. The Americans took three penalties against Finland and I expect there to be more PP opportunities in what should be a physical game.
McDavid has 118 goals over the last three NHL seasons.
Under 7.5 goals (-335): Adding this alternate under boosts our SGP from +230 to +375, which seems pretty nice to me.
Both Canada and USA went under this total in their openers, landing on exactly seven goals in a pair of high-event games.
Connor Hellebuyck (2.07 GAA, .925 SV%) has been the best goaltender in the league this season and is getting Hart Trophy attention. He was solid after letting in a cheap one on Friday.
It seems Jordan Binnington will get the crease for Canada and, while his numbers aren't on Hellebuyck's level, the Stanley Cup winner made some timely overtime saves and I expect his confidence to grow as the tournament goes on.
The U.S. was physical in its debut against Finland and I expect a tight-checking game rather than an open-ice track meet.
Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 02/15/2025.
