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The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays against a sputtering Boston Red Sox squad, which has lost five in a row. Boston counters with Brayan Bello, who has struggled to keep Toronto's bats at bay in the past.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 27, featuring Berrios and Addison Barger.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best Bet: Berrios over 17.5 outs (-137)
Berrios (3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has been pretty reliable for the Blue Jays all season, and he's really hit his stride over his last five starts.
- 2.03 ERA
- .194 OBA
- 6.0+ IP four times
- 31% hard-hit rate
The righty's biggest problem last year was giving up hard contact — he had a 24th percentile hard-hit rate (41.8%) in 2024 — but he's tightened that up. For context, a 31% hard-hit rate, what Berrios has allowed since May 29, would be the 18th best mark in MLB.
And Boston doesn't profile as the type of team that will light him up.
The Red Sox have the fifth-worst slugging percentage (.328) and worst wRC+ (56) since trading away Rafael Devers on June 15th.
Berrios has had plenty of success against this lineup before, holding Boston to a .226 batting average with a 28.1% K rate over 96 plate appearances.
He has played Boston twice this year, throwing 7.0 innings of one-run ball on April 8th and 6.2 innings of two-run ball on May 1st.
Key stat: Berrios is 6-1 against this line in his last seven starts.
Quick pick
Barger over 1.5 bases (+128): Barger has cooled off after a torrid start to the month, with just two singles in his last five games.
That said, I think he should get after Bello on Friday.
Boston's righty has a 19th percentile xERA (4.69) and a 17th percentile xBA (.273). He's also gotten hit harder by left-hitting batters, allowing a .275/.383/.413 slash line.
Barger's slugging percentage against righties (.500) is notably higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.355).
He is 4-for-8 against Bello with two doubles.
Blue Jays picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 06/25/2025.
