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After whiffing on some big free agents in the winter and failing to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Toronto Blue Jays could be headed for an inflection point in the 2025 season.
Is a teardown looming if the team starts slow? Will Bo Bichette return to form and lift last year's underwhelming offence?
Those are some of the questions worth exploring as we dive into some Blue Jays futures markets (team and player) for the 2025 season.
Blue Jays futures markets: Team props
Check out the latest Blue Jays futures markets. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
| Blue Jays futures markets | Betting odds |
| Over 80.5 wins | -106 |
| Under 80.5 wins | -118 |
| To reach the playoffs - Yes | +270 |
| To reach the playoffs - No | -375 |
| AL East division winner | +1,000 |
| AL pennant winner | +2,000 |
| World Series winner | +6,500 |
MLB odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on 03/22/2025.
The AL East has a well-earned reputation of being a gauntlet, and that should be true again this season.
- The Yankees (+325) have the shortest odds to win the American League, and the Orioles (+600) are right behind them.
- The Red Sox had a pair of big offseason acquisitions (Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman), and they have three top-15 prospects — per MLB Pipeline — who are on track to debut this year.
Toronto is coming off a 74-win, last-place finish in the AL East. Add that to the context of how some of its divisional foes are positioned, and it's no wonder that the Jays are expected to finish outside the postseason picture.
Blue Jays team futures best bet
Best Bet: Over 80.5 wins (-106)
I don’t expect Toronto to make the playoffs, and its +270 odds to do so backs up that hunch.
But I do think this can be a .500-or-better ball club — and a couple of industry-leading projection systems agree.
Here's how many games FanGraphs (ZiPS) and Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) project Toronto to win:
- FanGraphs: 82.4 wins
- PECOTA: 85.4 wins
It's also worth noting that there are some cracks in the AL East armour.
For the Yankees Gerrit Cole is done for the year, while Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton will both miss a month or more.
On the Orioles' side, an already thin rotation will be without Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish to start the year.
Neither AL East titan is at its best right now, and Toronto has 10 games against those teams in March/April. So maybe the Jays can bank more wins in that stretch than otherwise expected.
Toronto had 89-plus wins in three straight seasons before last year's nadir. Most of the key pieces are still in place, and there's too much talent to expect the Jays to be a losing squad.
Blue Jays futures markets: Player props
| Best Bets | Odds |
| Gausman over 167.5 strikeouts | -113 |
| Guerrero over 169.5 hits | -110 |
Kevin Gausman over 167.5 strikeouts (-113)
At 34, coming off what was easily his worst season since 2019, Gausman is unfortunately a prime candidate to continue trudging along the path of decline.
But I'm not going there with him yet. For a guy with a ton of big-league success and a track record of staying healthy, I know Gausman can hit this over even if this isn't a huge bounce-back season.
- Gausman has made 31+ starts and pitched 174+ innings in four straight seasons.
- From 2021-23, he tallied 200+ Ks in three straight years.
- From 2019-23, his K rate was 25.3% or higher each season (MLB average was 22.9% in that span).
Last year wasn't as rosy, with Gausman dipping to 162 Ks and a 21.4 K%. He saw significant whiff rate declines in his best swing-and-miss pitches: his splitter and slider.
The spin rates on those pitches were in line with his fantastic 2023 campaign, though, and Gausman told reporters this spring that command is what needs to be sharpened. If he can do that, it's possible for him to flirt with another 200-strikeout campaign.
A significant injury would be Gausman's undoing in this prop market, but that's true for any player's season-long futures bets.
Nothing about Gausman's past five seasons suggest there's notable risk.
Guerrero futures prop bet
Guerrero over 169.5 hits (-110)
In February, I highlighted the over on Guerrero's season-long RBI prop as a personal favourite. But that line has since moved from 89.5 to 92.5, so I'm switching gears.
Coming off a career-best 199 hits, Guerrero would need a 30-hit regression to miss this mark.
Now that he's seemingly locked into the No. 2 spot in the batting order — with a legitimate power bat offering protection right behind him — I just can't see that happening.
Anthony Santander bashed 44 home runs for the Orioles last year and figures to be Toronto's No. 3 hitter from Opening Day onward.
Opponents don't want to pitch to Vladdy, but Santander's presence should make that more likely.
Guerrero's plate coverage and pitch selection were at their best last season. He finished with a 13.8 K%, which was in MLB's 93rd percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Furthermore, Vladdy was in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity (93.8 mph) while posting an MLB-best .321 xBA.
From 2021-24, Guerrero has averaged 180 hits per season and cashed this bet three times.
Blue Jays futures picks made at 3:30 p.m. on 03/23/2025.
