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One of the world's best tennis players is in action at Wimbledon on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz looks to continue his unmatched dominance at the Grand Slam major. He faces Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. Before that, Nicolas Jarry is an underdog against Joao Fonseca despite winning five straight matches.
Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 4, including a pick on Karen Khachanov vs. Nuno Borges.
Wimbledon predictions: July 4
Best Bet: Alcaraz/Struff under 30.5 games (-112)
Alcaraz looks unbeatable right now.
- He's on a 20-match win streak and is 7-0 on grass in 2025.
- Since the start of 2023, he's 27-1 on the playing surface. The Spaniard has won back-to-back titles at Wimbledon.
Taking the under in his match vs. Struff is a good way to back Alcaraz to win in straight sets while avoiding his very hefty -770 price tag.
There's always the possibility that Struff keeps the sets close, pushing the number of games over this total. But with how Alcaraz is playing, I predict a comfortable win.
Struff is past his prime, ranking No. 121 in the world at 35 years old. He is off to an awful start to 2025 with a 7-17 record.
He upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, but the Canadian is known to be streaky.
That contest was delayed and stretched over two days. That should negatively affect the veteran's stamina moving forward.
Alcaraz is not a streaky player and will surely bring his A-game, looking for a third straight Wimbledon title.
Key stat: Alcaraz is coming off a dominant win over Oliver Tarvet (6-1, 6-4, 6-4) and has won 11 of his last 20 matches in straight sets.
Wimbledon best bet: Jarry vs. Fonseca
Jarry to win (+180): In my opinion, this should be a lot closer to a pick'em, so I'll ride with a value on the side of the underdog.
- Jarry needed to qualify for Wimbledon and did so by winning all three matches in straight sets.
- He followed that up with a first-round upset over Holger Rune, the No. 8-ranked player.
- Most recently, he picked up a dominant straight set win (6-2, 6-2, 6-4) over Learner Tien (No. 62) in the second round.
His next opponent, Fonseca, is the higher-ranked player, but I'm not sure he's the better player on this surface.
The Brazilian is 3-2 on grass this year and only won one of those contests in straight sets. He's seen a lot of resistance, and it should keep coming against a game opponent.
Jarry is 8-3 on grass in 2025 and has played 26 more matches on the surface in his career. I expect that experience to shine through for the red-hot Chilean player.
Best bet: Khachanov vs. Borges
Khachanov -1.5 sets (-121): Khachanov is one of the more consistent players on grass. His 32-19 record on the court type provides his highest win rate of any of the playing surfaces.
He looks to still be improving, too. He's won more games on grass in 2025 (six) than he's ever won in a single season, and he can continue to build on that success with a deep run at Wimbledon.
Borges doesn't share that same success. He's 10-13 in his career on the surface and has never finished a season with above a 50% win rate on grass.
Additionally, Khachanov and Borges have met once at a Grand Slam major (2022 French Open), and the former won the match while covering this -1.5 set spread.
With all that working in Khachanov's favour, I believe he can beat Borges without needing all five sets.
Wimbledon predictions made at 1:45 p.m. on 07/03/2025.
