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Andy Pages and Ronaldo Acuna Jr. headline today's MLB home run picks.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Pages is having a breakout year with the Los Angeles Dodgers and gets a chance to do more damage at home against the Chicago White Sox. Before that, look for Acuna to attack hard-throwing righty Jose Soriano.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 3.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Pages to hit a home run (+390)
It doesn't seem fair that the Dodges get to slide in Pages to their already-stacked roster.
The sophomore centre fielder ranks inside MLB's top 25 in batting average (.293), home runs (17) and RBI (58). Pages has already surpassed last year's HR and RBI totals in just over half as many games.
He's a free swinger who doesn't take a lot of walks, which is always great for a bet like this. Especially when he's facing a fly ball pitcher who is getting rocked.
Aaron Civale (4.74 ERA) ranks in the seventh percentile for ground ball rate and the 27th percentile for barrel rate. Chicago's newly acquired righty has given up 18 hits in 17 innings since joining the club, with two leaving the yard.
Pages also runs reverse splits against righties (.539 SLG), meaning he hits them harder than southpaws (.430 SLG).
Key stat: Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in the majors for right-hitting players, and Pages is slugging .616 at home.
Best HR predictions
Acuna to hit a home run (+475): Acuna came off the IL in late May and immediately started raking, bashing three home runs and batting .378 in his first eight games.
He's tapered off a little bit since, but still hit six home runs in June with a 1.087 OPS. With that said, I'm loving this price on a former 40-40 player in a plus matchup.
Acuna has always hit righties well, and this year is no different (.388/.487/.673 slash line). Soriano has a seventh percentile hard-hit rate and leans heavily on a sinker clocking in at over 95mph.
That's good news for us, because Acuna is batting .470 with a .583 SLG against that offering this season.
MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.
