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The Toronto Blue Jays look for a four-game sweep over the New York Yankees on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: With it would come sole possession of first place in the AL East. However, Clarke Schmidt gets the start for the Yankees, and he's been sizzling hot. Across from him starts Chris Bassitt for the Jays.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions for July 3, including Schmidt and Addison Barger.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
SGP: Yankees ML | Schmidt over 3.5 Ks | Barger 1+ hits (+300)
Yankees ML (-127): I think it's finally time New York gets one back in this series.
The Yankees should have the pitching advantage with Schmidt on the mound. He has a 3.09 ERA in 13 starts, and his xERA of 2.66 is even better, indicating some bad ball luck.
He recently went 28.1 innings pitched straight without giving up a run. That consisted of three consecutive starts with no runs allowed.
Schmidt's streak came to a rough end when he allowed four earned runs to the Athletics in his last outing. But that doesn't erase the amazing results from his past six starts:
- 1.64 ERA
- Seven earned runs in 38.1 IP.
- Held opponent scoreless in four of six starts.
It's hard to fade Toronto right now with how its offence is rolling. The Jays have scored 23 runs in the past two games. But if there's anyone whose form can match that, it's Schmidt.
And it's not like the Yankees have been bad. They have scored 18 runs in the first three games of this series.
A shutdown performance from a starting pitcher is the support the offence desperately needs to get one back against a divisional rival.
In the righty's one start against Toronto this season, he worked 5.0 innings, gave up one run, and the Yankees won 5-1.
Bassitt works opposite Schmidt on Thursday and he's in the middle of a rough patch of starts. He gave up eight runs in his last appearance and has a 6.57 ERA over his last seven starts.
MLB SGP legs
Schmidt over 3.5 Ks (-245): The obvious red flag with this pick is that the Blue Jays strike out fewer times per game than any other team (6.73).
But Schmidt's standard line of 4.5 Ks already felt low, so buying down on a teased line made sense for a parlay.
- The Yankees starter has cleared this total in 11 of his 13 starts.
- In his first meeting with the Jays, he logged six Ks on 90 pitches.
- He has 5+ Ks in seven of his past nine starts.
I'm banking on Schmidt working late into this game, which will elevate his strikeout opportunities.
He's pitched five or more innings in 10 of his past 11 starts.
Barger over 0.5 hits (-186): The Blue Jays' breakout power hitter has been hot with the bat.
Dating back to May 26, Barger has a hit in 23 of 31 games. Over that span, he's batting .283 and has nine of his 10 home runs for the season.
As good as Schmidt has been, he has one thing working against him in this matchup – he's a righty.
Barger bats from the left side and loves a platoon advantage. The left-handed batter hits .270 vs. RHP compared to .229 vs. LHP.
The 25-year-old is coming off a two-hit night with one of those being a home run.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 9:22 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.
