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There should be plenty of offence in Monday night's matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: The over/under is set at 9 runs, which might be low considering both starters (Walker Buehler, Jack Kochanowicz) have ERAs north of 5.30. Boston is 7-3 in its past 10 games despite dropping back-to-back games entering Modnay.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets for June 23, featuring Mike Trout and Wilyer Abreu.
Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets
Best Bet: Trout over 1.5 total bases (+100)
For a long time, any praise piled onto Trout has needed the "when healthy" qualifier attached to it.
From 2021-24, Trout played in just 41.0% of the Angels' games. He posted a .575 SLG and was on a 45-homer pace in that span, but he missed a ton of time.
Trout has missed 26 games so far this season, but when healthy, he's still crushing the ball.
According to Baseball Savant, Trout ranks in the 95th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and launch angle sweet spot rate.
His actual power numbers are the lowest of his career. But if you buy the batted-ball metrics, there's plenty of encouraging aspects to draw upon.
For instance, Trout's actual SLG (.443) is miles behind his expected SLG (.583). That 140-point difference is the third-largest in MLB.
Trout's main weakness is a high strikeout rate, but he's facing a pitcher tonight who shouldn't be much of a concern in that category.
Buehler ranks in the 16th percentile in whiff rate and 37th percentile in K rate. In his past five starts, he's allowed 25 runs on 35 hits over 23.0 innings.
Key Stat: Trout is averaging 1.5 bases/game in 21 starts since returning from the injured list on May 30.
Best MLB picks
Abreu under 0.5 runs (-125): Even though I think this game has plenty of offensive potential, I'm skeptical about Abreu's involvement.
Over his past 25 games, the second-year outfielder has a .197/.213/.310 slash line and a 30.7% K rate.
He's not an everyday starter, so a decent chunk of those games involved him pinch-hitting off the bench. Still, he's 13-4 to the under on this prop in recent starts.
It's not just that Abreu is struggling to get on base. He's also typically batting in the Nos. 3-5 range for the Red Sox, meaning he's expected to drive runners in more so than score himself.
Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 06/23/2025.
