BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Manny Machado is the late-night headliner in Monday's MLB prop bets.
Today's MLB props narrative: Machado loves to tag left-handed pitching, so he should be poised to take advantage of tonight's matchup. Elsewhere, Spencer Schwellenbach looks to pile up punchouts against the New York Mets for the second time this week.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 23, which also includes a prediction on Cody Bellinger.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Machado over 1.5 total bases (-105)
I think this is a fair price for a guy who mashes lefties and is having himself a solid month of production.
- So far in June, Machado has a .298/.351/.548 slash line. He's averaging 2.2 bases per game and is 11-10 vs. this prop.
- On the season, Machado has a .278/.363/.582 slash line against left-handed pitchers. His 163 wRC+ against southpaws is the best among Padres hitters.
Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is spiralling right now, taking the loss in five consecutive starts.
In four road starts since May 1, Parker has a 5.93 ERA and a .754 opponent OPS.
Machado, 32, is still mashing the ball with the best of them in his 14th MLB season. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant.
With a platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher, a near-even price for a multi-base game from Machado is worth a look.
Key stat: Machado is averaging 1.9 bases/game and is 41-36 (53.2%) vs. this prop.
Best MLB picks
Schwellenbach over 5.5 Ks (-115): Schwellenbach is working deep into games and mowing down plenty of batters right now. This line is definitely on the low side in my view.
- Over his past eight starts, the right-hander has a 2.77 ERA while striking out 6.9 batters per game. He's completed 6.0 or more innings in all eight of those starts.
- Schwellenbach has 8+ Ks in four of his past five starts.
The Mets are a low-strikeout bunch, posting the ninth-lowest K rate in the majors. But Schwellenbach just racked up eight Ks over 7.0 innings when he faced them last Tuesday.
Bellinger over 1.5 bases (+112): If you think a lefty-on-lefty matchup is a problem for Bellinger, think again.
The outfielder is 24-for-72 (.333) with a .528 SLG vs. left-handers this season. For his career, he's got a solid .785 OPS against southpaws.
Reds lefty Nick Lodolo also happens to have reverse splits, meaning he tends to fare better against right-hitting players. LHHs have a .316/.379/.421 slash line against him this season.
Bellinger was batting below the Mendoza line in his first 30 games, but he's picked it up since then:
- First 30 games: .198 BA, .340 SLG, 1.2 bases/game
- Past 40 games: .291 BA, .500 SLG, 2.0 bases/game
Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is already one of the most offence-friendly venues in the league. And with expected temperatures of 28 C and above all night, the ball should be flying.
MLB prop picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET on 06/23/2025.
