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Coming off a two-homer game yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is one of my favourite MLB home run picks for Monday night.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Suzuki's Chicago Cubs are on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time this season, and the conditions are ripe for the ball to fly. The same is true in Cincinnati, where Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz looks to continue his impressive month of production.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 23, which also includes a prediction on Taylor Ward.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+240)
There's a heatwave going on in many parts of North America right now, including the Midwest.
That's a plus for HR picks.
High temperatures mean the air is less dense, allowing the baseball to travel further. So as long as players don't wither away, the conditions for hitting a home run are even better than usual.
On Saturday afternoon, De La Cruz vomited during the fourth inning of a game in St. Louis due to the extreme heat. But that didn't stop him from homering three innings later.
It'll be 34 C (or 94 F) for first pitch in Cincinnati tonight, according to Swish Analytics. And the temperature is expected to stay at 28 C or higher throughout the game.
De La Cruz is blazing hot right now, too.
- In June, De La Cruz has a .309/.405/.676 slash line.
- He has homered in 6 of 19 games this month, including 5 of 10 since June 11.
Tonight, the switch-hitting slugger will bat from the left side, where he's a far better hitter. He's slugging .557 as a LHH this season (vs. a .362 SLG from the right side).
Key stat: Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park allows 33% more home runs to left-hitting players than average (No. 1 in MLB), per Baseball Savant.
Best HR predictions
Ward to hit a home run (+400): Ward is having an all-or-nothing type of season, with some solid power numbers despite a low contact rate.
He's tied for 10th in MLB in home runs (19) but ranks in the 16th percentile in strikeout rate (26.8%). And his .210 BA ranks 154th among 161 qualified hitters.
One powered-up swing is all he'll need, though, and I think he can find it in this matchup.
- Red Sox starter Walker Buehler has allowed seven HRs in his past five starts. Ward is 1-for-5 with a HR vs. Buehler.
- Angel Stadium allows 16% more homers than average to RHHs (No. 5 in MLB).
Suzuki to hit a home run (+430): St. Louis' Busch Stadium isn't a very homer-friendly park, but the temperature will be in the 30s all night tonight with the wind blowing out gently to left field.
For a right-hitting slugger like Suzuki, that'll play.
It also helps that the Cardinals will have a left-hander (Matthew Liberatore) on the mound. Against LHPs, Suzuki ranks fourth in SLG (.708) and fifth in wRC+ (205).
The outfielder has found a new gear as a power hitter in his age-30 season. He's already at 20 HR, which is one shy of his career high, and we're still three weeks away from the all-star break.
MLB home run picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET on 06/23/2025.
