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After an off-day yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays are on the road to face the Cleveland Guardians for a three-game series.
The pregame narrative: Cleveland took two of three from Toronto last month at Rogers Centre in a series where all three games were decided by two or fewer runs. Eric Lauer will start for the Blue Jays, looking to bolster his rotation spot that was earned earlier in June.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 24, featuring Ernie Clement and George Springer.
Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians
Best Bet: Clement over 1.5 total bases (+107)
Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Goldschmidt, and ... Ernie Clement.
Based on wRC+, those are the top five hitters in MLB against left-handed pitching.
And Clement (236 wRC+ vs. LHPs) is actually second, with a .434/.470/.724 slash line. He's a bit of an unsung success story for the Jays, but this is worth paying attention to.
Clement doesn't swing hard or hit the ball hard. He's in the bottom-10th percentile in bat speed, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.
But he still knows how to generate quality contact, evidenced by his 98th-percentile squared-up rate. That means he's often connecting with the sweet spot, which is always a good thing.
Oh, and he's a bona fide free-swinger who rarely strikes out:
- 7th-percentile walk rate (4.2%)
- 7th-percentile chase rate (37.5%)
- 95th-percentile K rate (11.1%)
- 92nd-percentile whiff rate (14.9%)
Clement has been on quite a tear since the Blue Jays' late-May homestand. Since May 29, he's batting .416 with a 1.040 OPS ... and only one walk. He's 14-7 vs. this total bases prop in 21 starts over that span.
This swing-happy infielder should be in a great spot to succeed with another southpaw on the mound.
Key stat: Clement is 2-for-5 with two doubles vs. Logan Allen.
Quick pick
Springer over 0.5 RBI (+155): He's not on a Clement-calibre hot streak right now, but Springer is in a groove that also coincides with Toronto's late-May homestand.
In 20 starts since May 29, Springer is slugging .493 with 14 RBI. He's 11-9 vs. this prop in that span.
Springer will be somewhere in the Nos. 3-5 spots in Toronto's lineup tonight. With the likes of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in front, that's a nice spot to be for RBI opportunities.
Against Allen, Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and two walks.
Lauer over 4.5 strikeouts (+123): After mainly serving as a bulk reliever for the Blue Jays, Lauer will make his third turn through the starting rotation tonight.
And he's earned it.
The left-hander has a 2.29 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 in 10 outings this season. He's coming off 5.0 innings of one-run ball, in which he struck out eight batters.
Lauer crested the 70-pitch mark in both previous starts in June, and I'm hoping the leash on him will have even more length in this matchup.
But as long as he pitches into the fifth inning or deeper — in what would be his third straight start doing so — he should have a solid chance of cashing this bet.
The Guardians have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB vs. lefties (24.9%).
Blue Jays picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 06/24/2025.
