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Three days after Rafael Devers hit his first home run for the San Francisco Giants, I'm backing the left-hitting slugger to go yard again.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Devers faces Miami Marlins starter Cal Quantrill in a matchup that has gone Devers' way more often than not in the past. Elsewhere, Brandon Nimmo will dig in against a familiar foe for the second time in a week.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 24, which also includes a prediction on Max Muncy.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Nimmo to hit a home run (+440)
Spencer Strider might be back, which is a potential problem for this wager. But I still think there's a lot to like.
- Yes, Strider carved up the Mets last week (6.0 innings, five hits, one run, eight strikeouts). He now has 21 Ks over his past 12.0 innings of work, with just one run allowed in that span. But this will also be the Mets' second time seeing Strider in six days.
- Nimmo has had more looks at Strider than anyone on New York's roster. The outfielder is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Strider with five extra-base hits, including two HRs.
- New York's Citi Field is the sixth-most homer-friendly park for right-hitting players, per Baseball Savant. Righties hit 10% more HRs at Citi Field than in the average park elsewhere.
Nimmo doubled off Strider last week in Atlanta and added a 370-foot flyout against Braves reliever Dylan Lee.
Nimmo's familiarity in this matchup, especially after just seeing Strider a handful of days ago, is a serious draw for this pick.
So is the fact that the Mets' No. 2 hitter is on a tear right now. Over his past 22 games, he's homered seven times and posted a .318/.383/.612 slash line.
Key stat: Nimmo is slugging .502 vs. right-handed pitchers this year, with 12 HRs in 224 plate appearances.
Best HR predictions
Muncy to hit a home run (+390): As if the Dodgers needed something else to break their way, Muncy has turned into a wrecking ball recently for the defending World Series champs.
Over his past 24 games (20 starts), Muncy has produced a .329/.467/.714 slash line with eight HRs.
Now he'll play in the thin air at Colorado's Coors Field, where the ball travels better than anywhere else.
Muncy has 13 career HRs at Coors in 51 games (46 starts). He also has four homers in his career against Rockies starter German Marquez.
Devers to hit a home run (+350): Devers hit his first HR as a Giant over the weekend, and it came against his old team. That was a nice reminder of the type of power San Francisco is investing in.
The designated hitter ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
His new home ballpark isn't extra hitter-friendly, but Devers has the pop to overcome locational challenges.
Also, according to Swish Analytics, there's a strong gust of wind blowing out tonight at Oracle Park (10-12 mph).
Devers has done plenty of damage against Miami's Quantrill, going 6-for-11 with a home run and three doubles.
MLB home run picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET on 06/24/2025.
