NFL Week 1 is here and what better way to celebrate than to take a look at a trio of TD scorers for Sunday's action.
The pregame narrative: During the early slate, Tank Bigsby benefits by playing one of 2024's worst defensive teams. Later on, Nick Chubb looks to find the endzone in his first game with the Houston Texans.
Check out my top Week 1 NFL TD picks, featuring a prediction on Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
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NFL TD picks: Week 1
Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+155)
Chubb had to rejoin the Cleveland Browns midway through last season, and his stats tell us he lost some explosiveness.
- He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns in eight games.
But after two different leg injuries, I have a good feeling he should be better after a full offseason and training camp to prepare.
This isn't just any running back, as Chubb was arguably the best in the league for years before his injury. Before 2024, he averaged over 5.0 YPC in every season.
If he regained even some of that explosiveness, he could quickly outplay the $2.5 million contract he signed with Houston.
I don't expect Chubb to be a bellcow in Joe Mixon's absence, but the Texans should be giddy to use him inside the red zone.
Even in his down season, Chubb scored on three of his five carries inside five yards for the Browns.
Houston's offence is a major upgrade, and I'm sure DeMeco Ryans will turn to Chubb if given the chance near the goal line.
Key stat: Chubb scored 56 TDs in 85 games during his seven seasons with Cleveland.
Best NFL picks
Bigsby anytime TD (+143): I love the value here on who I expect to be the Jacksonville Jaguars' short-yardage back.
Bigbsy improved tremendously in his sophomore season.
- 2023-24: 2.6 YPC, two TDs
- 2024-25: 4.6 YPC, seven TDs
Part of that is due to his improvement in the red zone. As he rookie, he turned just 6.6% of his red zone touches into scores. As a sophomore, he upped that to 26.3%.
In Week 1, the Jaguars play the Carolina Panthers, and they were pitiful at stopping the run last season.
They allowed the most YPC (5.2) and tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed (24).
Last season, Bigsby recorded 3.74 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked third in the NFL among running backs with at least 60 carries.
NFL touchdown scorer prediction
Daniels anytime TD (+143): We saw the effects of a mobile QB when Jalen Hurts scored two rushing TDs on Thursday Night Football.
And Daniels is one of the few others who can move like Hurts. The Commanders' QB ran for 891 yards last season and added six scores.
With the departure of Brian Robinson Jr., I can't help but think Washington will draw up even more plays for Daniels in the red zone.
Austin Ekeler is set to begin the season as the starting running back, and he's far from a power runner. In 77 attempts last season, the veteran back had just four TDs and three fumbles.
For reference, Derrick Henry had the same number of fumbles on 235 carries.
That isn't something any coach can rely on when trying to run inside the tackles.
The New York Giants had a below-average run defence last season, allowing 4.5 YPC as a unit.
NFL TD picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 09/05/2025.
