Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime battle for a spot in the U.S. Open final on Friday.
The pre-match narrative: This figures to be a lopsided affair. Sinner, the World No. 1 and reigning champion, has only dropped one set at Flushing Meadows and is -2,500 to advance. Auger-Aliassime has had a resurgent year but was beaten handily the last time he played Sinner.
Check out our Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and my best bet for the Sept. 5 tennis match.
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Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime odds
Full U.S. Open betting markets
Best US Open men's tennis pick
Best Bets: Auger-Aliassime over 0.5 breaks (-148)
There isn't much value in betting on this match.
Sinner is -200 to win this match in straight sets, and has a lofty -7.5 game spread, which could admittedly go either way.
The Italian has only been broken three times at Flushing Meadows, all at the hands of Auger-Aliassime's fellow Canadian, Denis Shapovalov.
Sinner still won that match 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, and has since demolished Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Musetti, dropping a total of 10 games across six sets.
I can't picture a world where Auger-Aliassime gives Sinner trouble. But a single break? That's attainable.
The Montreal native has knocked off two top-10 players in this event, Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev, generating 15 break opportunities in those matches.
He also breezed past 15-seed Andrey Rublev, converting 4-of-7 breaks in that match.
Auger-Aliassime is 2-1 against Sinner in his career, but was most recently dismantled, 6-0, 6-2, by the Italian in Cincinnati. But even then, the Canadian cashed this wager.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has converted 8-of-16 career break points against Sinner.
Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime best bet made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/04/2025.
