The NFL season is finally here, and so are our staff against the spread picks.
The latest: Every team has a fresh slate heading into this week's action, with features 16 games and four nights of prime-time action. Only three matches have spreads north of a touchdown, meaning fans should be treated to some close matchups.
Check out our staff's Week 1 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.
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NFL ATS picks: Week 1
NorthStar Bets' Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman, and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 1 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025.
Thursday Night Football pick
Cowboys vs. Eagles (Thursday, Sept. 4: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -8
Perri says: I'll risk having an egg on my head by taking the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia's offence is sure to put up points, but I think Dak Prescott and Co. can hold serve. In 2022-23, the Prescott-led Cowboys averaged 30.0 PPG in three contests against Philly, going 3-0 against this line. He didn't play against the Birds last year, which explains the lopsided scores.
Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (PHI) | Closs (PHI) | Toman (DAL) | Psihogios (PHI)
NFL Friday night prediction
Chiefs vs. Chargers (Friday, Sept. 5: 8 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chiefs -3
Toman says: The Chargers were the best ATS team in 2024. Kansas City covered at a below-.500 rate, and five of its 15 wins came by three points or fewer. How much of that is transferable to 2025 remains to be seen, but I don't like the Chiefs at this number. Not against a hungry divisional rival, which held opponents to the second-fewest points per game last year and added one of the top running backs (Omarion Hampton) of the draft class.
Staff picks: Perri (KC) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (KC)
NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Cardinals vs. Saints (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cardinals -6.5
Perri says: The Cardinals imploded down the stretch last season, but they get a soft landing spot against the Saints this week. New Orleans has arguably the worst starting QB in football, Spencer Rattler, and a defence which lost several big names (Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo). The season hasn't even started, and the Saints are looking toward the 2026 NFL draft. I'll back an Arizona squad which went 11-6 ATS last year.
Staff picks: Perri (ARI) | Horrobin (ARI) | Closs (ARI) | Toman (ARI) | Psihogios (ARI)
Panthers vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Jaguars -3.5
Perri says: Bryce Young didn't quite look like a No. 1 overall pick last year, but he definitely looked like a starting-calibre QB. That's good enough for me. Young threw for 14 touchdowns and six interceptions after re-regaining the starting job in Week 8, going 7-3 ATS in Carolina's final 10 games. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence has lost 13 of his last 15 starts. I'll take a field goal and a hook.
Staff picks: Perri (CAR) | Horrobin (CAR) | Closs (CAR) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (JAX)
Bengals vs. Browns (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Bengals -5.5
Closs says: There's no telling how good (or bad) the Bengals' defence may be, but I have no problem fading the Browns in Week 1. Cleveland had a -177 point differential in 2024, and the addition of Joe Flacco at QB isn't enough to make me think it has a chance against Joe Burrow and the Bengals' dynamic offence.
Staff picks: Perri (CIN) | Horrobin (CIN) | Closs (CIN) | Toman (CIN) | Psihogios (CLE)
Raiders vs. Patriots (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Patriots -2.5
Closs says: While I do expect the Pats to be improved under a sophomore Drake Maye, the Raiders added Geno Smith, which should erase their QB problems. The side scored just 18.2 points per game in 2024 behind Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, who combined to throw 19 TDs and 16 INTs. A legit starter under centre should make the Raiders much more competitive. New England and Vegas had identical 7-9-1 ATS records last season, but I have more faith in the offseason additions made by the Raiders.
Staff picks: Perri (LV) | Horrobin (LV) | Closs (LV) | Toman (LV) | Psihogios (LV)
Dolphins vs. Colts (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Colts -0.5
Closs says: With Tua Tagovailoa starting, the Dolphins are 40-24 overall and 4-0 in Week 1s. He should give Miami a massive QB advantage as the Indianapolis Colts are going with Daniel Jones, at least for the opening game. That gives me enough confidence to back Miami at a pick'em price.
Staff picks: Perri (IND) | Horrobin (MIA) | Closs (MIA) | Toman (MIA) | Psihogios (MIA)
Giants vs. Commanders (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Commanders -6
Horrobin says: Washington took a massive step forward last year with Jayden Daniels at the helm, but the team struggled to put away New York in both divisional meetings. The Giants covered this number both times, losing by a combined eight points. I’m excited to see how Abul Carter fits into an already loaded defensive front.
Staff picks: Perri (WSH) | Horrobin (NYG) | Closs (WSH) | Toman (WSH) | Psihogios (NYG)
Steelers vs. Jets (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Steelers -3
Closs says: These two teams pulled off a rare QB swap as Aaron Rodgers will start Week 1 for Pittsburgh this season, while Justin Fields finds a new home with the Jets. I don't necessarily have faith in either signal caller, but I will side with the Steelers' defence, which allowed the seventh fewest PPG last season (20.8). For context, the Jets allowed 23.8 PPG and arguably got worse on offence. Last year, the Steelers only scored 25+ points once in Fields' five starts.
Staff picks: Perri (NYJ) | Horrobin (PIT) | Closs (PIT) | Toman (NYJ) | Psihogios (NYJ)
Buccaneers vs. Falcons (Sunday, Sept. 7: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Buccaneers -2
Horrobin says: Atlanta won and covered in both matchups against Tampa last year, and now it'll face a banged-up Bucs squad that is missing Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS vs. the Bucs over the past three seasons, and Michael Penix has the necessary weapons to keep that going.
Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (ATL) | Closs (TB) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)
NFL 4 p.m. slate
49ers vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Sept. 7: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: 49ers -2.5
Perri says: 49ers -2.5 (-112): Christian McCaffrey is healthy, Robert Saleh is back at defensive coordinator, and the vibes are high in San Francisco. Sam Darnold is under centre for Seattle, and he didn't handle pressure well down the stretch last year. I expect him to struggle, and the Niners to put up points. San Francisco is 4-1 with a +53 point differential against the Seahawks with CMC in the lineup.
Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (SEA) | Toman (SF) | Psihogios (SF)
Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate
Titans vs. Broncos (Sunday, Sept. 7: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Broncos -8.5
Perri says: This game has blowout written all over it. The 2025 No. 1 pick, Cam Ward, is making his first start on the road against a top-three defence in the NFL. Sean Payton should make his life miserable, while Bo Nix seems poised to build on a strong rookie campaign. Last season, Denver won each of its last five home games by an average of 22.2 points.
Staff picks: Perri (DEN) | Horrobin (DEN) | Closs (DEN) | Toman (DEN) | Psihogios (TEN)
Lions vs. Packers (Sunday, Sept. 7: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Packers -2
Horrobin says: Green Bay’s hype train might be whistling a bit too loudly, but acquiring a player of Micah Parsons’ stature will do that. The Lions had more brain drain than anybody this offseason, losing both coordinators and six assistants. Green Bay went 5-2-1 against this spread at home last season (excluding its meaningless Week 18 loss to Chicago).
Staff picks: Perri (DET) | Horrobin (GB) | Closs (GB) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)
Texans vs. Rams (Sunday, Sept. 7: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Rams -3
Toman says: Injuries were a factor, but Houston and C.J. Stroud were lousy to close out last season. In general, Stroud's sophomore year was a major letdown. His Texans are once again facing injury issues with RB Joe Mixon and WR Tank Dell on the sidelines. The Rams were dangerous down the stretch and gave the Super Bowl-winning Eagles their biggest playoff test. Give me Sean McVay and L.A. at home.
Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (LAR) | Closs (HOU) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (HOU)
Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks
Ravens vs. Bills (Monday, Sept. 8: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Ravens -1
Horrobin says: Until proven otherwise, Buffalo shouldn’t be a home dog against anyone. The Bills have the best home record since the start of the 2021 season (32-7), and they were only underdogs once in that span. Buffalo also beat Baltimore at home in the divisional round last year.
Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (BUF) | Closs (BAL) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)
Vikings vs. Bears (Monday, Sept. 8: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -1.5
Horrobin says: Ben Johnson might ascend to be one of the NFL’s next great head coaches, but Kevin O’Connell is already there. O’Connell should outclass his first-year head coaching counterpart, even with the inexperienced J.J. McCarthy under centre. The Vikings, who went 7-5-1 ATS as favourites last year, are 7-1 vs. the Bears since 2021.
Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (MIN) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (CHI)
