In the lone ranked-versus-ranked matchup of the week, the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners host the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: This game features two of the most notable offseason transfers in Justice Haynes (Michigan) and John Mateer (Oklahoma). Both players look to build off stellar debuts with their new programs.
Check out my Michigan vs. Oklahoma same-game parlay predictions for Sept. 6, featuring Justice Haynes.
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Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions
Parlay: Haynes anytime TD | Mateer 200+ pass yards | Under 50.5 points (+410)
Haynes anything TD (-113): Haynes was the top-rated running back transfer this offseason, according to 247 Sports, and he wasted no time showing Michigan what he can do.
In his debut for the Wolverines, Haynes stormed for 159 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries.
He scored inside the five-yard line twice but also flashed his home run speed with a 56-yard TD to open the scoring
Oklahoma has a stout defence — more on that in a moment — but its primary strength last year was in the passing game. The Sooners' defence ranked No. 1 in EPA per pass in 2024, according to Game On Paper, but only No. 91 in EPA per rush.
Wolverines vs. Sooners SGP picks
Mateer 200+ passing yards (-385): I have a lot of respect for Michigan's defence year after year, so I teased this yardage line way down. But at this milestone, Mateer should absolutely hit the over.
The Washington State transfer threw for 261.6 yards/game and 29 touchdowns last year in his first opportunity as a starter.
He also lit it up in his Oklahoma debut, completing 30 of 37 passes for 392 yards and three scores against Illinois State (FCS).
Given the quality of the opponent, that might not seem super impressive. But it's notable given that the Sooners struggled to get the run game going (103 yards on 32 carries).
Mateer has cashed this yardage milestone in eight of 12 games since the start of last season.
Under 50.5 points (-250): I touted an alt under for this game in a +318 college football parlay already, and it makes for a great final leg on this ticket.
Both Michigan and Oklahoma had top-40 defences last year in terms of EPA per play. The Sooners have some studs returning, including sack leader R Mason Thomas.
Michigan has a fair amount of turnover on defence, which is what happens when you're consistently sending players to the NFL. But the unit has finished in the top 20 in defensive EPA in eight of the past 10 years, so I expect a proper reload.
If either offence is liable to crumble, it could be the visiting Wolverines. Facing a blue blood program in a road environment is a tough ask for true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to overcome.
Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions made at 3:55 p.m. ET on 09/04/2025
