The New York Yankees and Houston Astros play out their rubber match at Daikin Park on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: New York is a slight favourite with Carlos Rodon on the mound, who is pitching opposite Houston's Cristian Javier. The Astros righty is making his fifth start of the season and has dominated the Yankees in the past.
See why I like plenty of offence in my Yankees vs. Astros SGP predictions for Sept. 4, featuring Yordan Alvarez.
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Yankees vs. Astros predictions
Parlay: Astros +2.5 | Alvarez over 1.5 bases | Rodon over 3.5 Ks (+270)
Astros +2.5 (-250): This seems like a no-brainer way to begin the SGP.
Javier doesn't have a massive body of work this season, but owns a respectable 3.38 ERA across four starts.
Most recently, he threw six no-hit innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 29.
The righty has some command issues, to be fair, but so does Rodon, who walked a shocking 20 batters in 34.1 innings in August.
And take a look at how each pitcher has performed against their opposing lineup:
- Yankees vs. Javier: 11-for-61 (.180 BA, .195 xBA), 34.8% K rate
- Astros vs. Rodon: 28-for-103 (.272 BA, .241 XBA), 26.1% K rate
Rodon's road ERA (3.47) and OBA (.225) are also notably higher than his numbers at home (2.86 ERA, .145 OBA).
I feel comfortable banking two runs with the 77-win Astros.
MLB SGP legs
Alvarez over 1.5 bases (+120): The biggest risk with this leg, in my opinion, is Alvarez taking walks.
Rodon is issuing free passes like cutout coupons, and Alvarez has had an 80th percentile or higher walk rate in each of the last four seasons.
But getting one of baseball's most dangerous hitters at plus money seems too good to pass up on.
Alvaraez is batting .318 with a .545 SLG in 22 at-bats vs. LHP this season, and ran even better reverse splits in last year's full-season sample:
- 2024 vs. LHP: .362/.411/.617
- 2024 vs. RHP: .280/.383/.541
The slugger is 6-for-9 in this series with a double and should stay hot.
Rodon over 3.5 Ks (-500): Betting a -500 prop as a standalone never plays, but this leg brings this wager from +175 to +270, which is well worth it.
Rodon's 26.5% K rate ranks in the 78th percentile. He's gone over this line in 26-of-28 starts and has cleared this mark in all four starts vs. Houston since joining New York.
There isn't much more to say here. This is an extremely manageable line for a solid pitcher.
Yankees vs. Astros predictions made at 9:23 a.m. ET on 09/04/2025.
