The NFL returns to Sao Paulo, Brazil for a Friday night showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.
The pregame narrative: Last year's Brazil game between the Packers and Eagles was a thrilling one, so hopefully these AFC West rivals can follow suit. On the Chiefs' side, Isiah Pacheco looks to return to form after a sluggish run down the stretch for the eventual conference champions.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Chargers +500 same-game parlay predictions for Week 1, featuring prop bets on Keenan Allen and Marquise Brown.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Chiefs vs. Chargers SGP predictions
SGP: Allen over 3.5 catches | Pacheco 40+ rush yards | Brown 30+ rec. yards | Chargers +7.5 (+500)
Allen over 3.5 receptions (-121): The longtime Charger is back in the mix, and though I don't expect him to feast like the good ol' days, there should be room for him to make his mark.
Allen averaged 95 receptions per year over Herbert's first four years in the NFL (2020-23) before splitting for Chicago last season.
The 33-year-old wideout won't be the top target for L.A. — that's Ladd McConkey's role — but I think the longstanding connection with Herbert matters.
In his final season with Herbert's Chargers, Allen averaged 8.3 receptions and went 12-1 vs. this prop.
Last year with the Bears, Allen averaged 4.7 receptions. That was a career-low mark, but it still led to a 10-5 result vs. this prop.
Friday night SGP picks
Pacheco 40+ rushing yards (-177): Pacheco had decidedly little juice last season after returning from a fractured fibula. With a full offseason to rest and recover, he's worth buying back in on.
I'm not going to make much of him turning four preseason carries into 29 rushing yards, but there's been plenty of buzz about him finding his pre-injury gear.
Pacheco's first start post-injury came against the Chargers last year in Week 14, and he gutted out 55 yards on 14 carries. This milestone yardage mark really isn't much for a starting tailback.
From the start of 2023 through Week 2 of last season, Pacheco cashed this bet in 17 of 20 games.
Brown 30+ receiving yards (-210): A preseason collarbone injury derailed Brown's first season with the Chiefs, but he still had some moments of productivity in the closing weeks.
- Brown played in just two regular-season games — Weeks 16 and 17 — and saw a whopping 15 targets. He was less active in the playoffs but still had 13 targets over three games.
- All told, Brown had 141 yards over five games for the Chiefs, going 3-2 vs. this line.
Travis Kelce is another year older, and Rashee Rice is serving a suspension. Brown is the Chiefs' WR2 right now, and this is an awfully low yardage total for someone in that position.
NFL Brazil game ATS pick
Chargers +7.5 (-250): I'd feel better about this pick if the Chargers were playing at home rather than being the "home" team in an international game. But I still expect a close battle between AFC West foes.
- L.A. hasn't beaten KC since 2021, but they consistently play close games against each other.
- In 10 meetings since the 2020 season, the Chargers are 9-1 vs. this spread. Eight of those 10 games were decided by one score.
In Jim Harbaugh's debut coaching season, the Chargers posted an NFL-best 12-6 ATS record.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, were just 9-11 ATS. They somehow only had a +59 point differential in the regular season despite compiling a 15-2 record.
KC deserves to be viewed as a legitimate Super Bowl contender again, but L.A. is a talented squad that knows how to hang in this matchup.
Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions made at 11:35 a.m. on 09/04/2025.
