There's no shortage of star power in Thursday's MLB prop bets, with Aaron Judge and Paul Skenes gracing the marquee.
Today's MLB props narrative: Judge is a worthy fade candidate tonight against the Houston Astros, while Skenes looks to build on an impressive track record against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 4, including a prediction on Yandy Diaz.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Judge under 1.5 total bases (-125)
Judge is having an otherworldly season, and it wouldn't be wise to make a habit of fading him too often.
But he hasn't been that great since the all-star break, and tonight's matchup is one I'm comfortable fading him in.
- In the second half, Judge is batting .229 with a 129 wRC+ (47th in MLB).
- Most of his recent offensive value has come from walks rather than a power display. Judge has more walks (28) than hits (27) since July 18.
- Houston right-hander Cristian Javier is known to walk batters in bunches. He has nine walks through 16.0 innings this season, and his 3.79 BB/9 since 2021 is 18th-highest among 200 qualifiers.
Walks are good for this bet because they don't count as bases. Judge has a 99th-percentile walk rate (16.8%), per Baseball Savant, which makes him a good fit with the wild Javier.
There's also Judge's head-to-head history against Javier, which is strikingly in the pitcher's favour.
Judge is 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and two walks vs. Javier.
Key stat: Since the all-star break, Judge has gone under 1.5 bases in 22 of 33 games.
Best MLB picks
Skenes over 6.5 Ks (-112): The Los Angeles Dodgers drew the short straw of facing Skenes in both series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's had no problem mowing down the defending champs.
- On April 25 in L.A., Skenes struck out nine Dodgers over 6.1 innings.
- Last year, Skenes had 16 Ks over 11.0 IP vs. the Dodgers, cashing this prop in both outings.
Those results are very encouraging, and they play into Skenes' overall status as a big-time strikeout force.
He's averaging 6.7 Ks per start this year and is 15-13 vs. this number.
Diaz over 0.5 runs (+100): Diaz has been feasting lately, and his even-money price to score on a struggling pitcher has my attention.
- Over his past 25 games, Diaz has a .351/.400/.557 slash line. He has reached base multiple times in 16 of those games.
- Diaz is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games.
Cleveland's Logan Allen has a 5.28 ERA since the all-star break, allowing 63 baserunners in 44.1 IP.
Diaz has an .893 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, so he's wielding a nice platoon advantage, too.
MLB prop picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 09/04/2025.
