The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees begin a massive three-game series in the Bronx on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto holds a three-game lead over New York in the AL East standings and is a slight road underdog tonight behind the red-hot Kevin Gausman. New York counters with rookie standout Cam Schlittler, who owns a 2.61 ERA across nine starts.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Yankees for Sept. 3, featuring Aaron Judge and George Springer.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Yankees
Best bet: Judge over 1.5 bases (-103)
Judge is "slumping", but I'll happily take his bases total when it's favourably priced in a solid matchup.
The Yankees' slugger still leads MLB in batting average (.321), slugging percentage (.663), ISO (.341) and wRC+ (193) despite posting a .242/.415/.474 slash line since August 1.
That .415 on-base percentage is a reflection of Judge's plate discipline and his opponents' willingness to walk him in high-leverage situations.
He had more walks (27) than hits (23) in that span, which isn't ideal for this wager.
Still, he's gone over this line in five of his last 10 games — with three home runs — and has dominated Gausman in a large sample size.
- Judge is 16-for-43 against Gausman with three doubles and six home runs.
- In those PAs, his xBA (.382) and xSLG (.876) are better than his normal numbers (.356, .822).
Gausman is finding his form at the right time, with a 3.06 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in his last 10 starts. A lot of that success has been due to his elite command, though, meaning Judge should get something to swing at tonight.
Key stat: Judge leads MLB in total bases per game (2.41).
Jays prop picks
Springer to score (-121): You know who's not slumping? George Springer.
Toronto's leadoff man is on a rampage and should, in my opinion, earn down-ballot MVP votes with the way he's closing out the season. Check out his MLB ranks post-all-star-game:
- First in batting average (.405)
- First in wRC+ (238)
- Second in on-base percentage (.496)
- Second in OPS (1.235)
Springer has reached base in nearly half of his 131 plate appearances since July 17, scoring a blistering 37 runs in 28 games.
Schlittler is a solid arm, no doubt, but I'll back Springer at this price any day, and I trust Toronto's lineup to drive him home.
Over 9 runs (+100): The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.294), OPS (.857) and wRC+ (137) in the second half. That's why I'm not worried about them getting after Schlittler and scoring Springer.
Toronto scored 25 runs in its last two games against the Cincinnati Reds, and is 6-2-1 against this line in its last 10 games.
When the Jays faced Schlittler in July, they had seven hits and three walks in 5.0 IP but only managed two runs. That's an anomaly.
These teams have played seven games dating back to Toronto's four-game sweep of New York in June. Those outings averaged 12.14 runs, and the over on this total went 4-2-1.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:03 a.m. ET on 09/05/2025.
