Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz meet in a must-see U.S. Open semifinal match this Friday.
The pre-match narrative: When these two battle, the stakes are often high. Djokovic is 5-3 against Alcaraz with a perfect 3-0 record on hard courts. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has won their last two meetings but is an underdog against Alcaraz, who has yet to drop a set at Flushing Meadows.
Check out our Djokovic vs. Alcaraz odds and my best bet for the Sept. 5 tennis match.
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Djokovic vs. Alcaraz odds
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Best US Open men's tennis pick
Best Bets: Over 3.5 sets (-150)
Is this a lot of juice? Yes, but I think it's worth the squeeze in this semifinal.
I was skeptical about Djokovic's conditioning coming into this tournament, but it's clear Father Time will have to wait before calling the Serbian's number.
Djokovic has improved round over round and just beat the last remaining American, No. 4-ranked Taylor Fritz (6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4).
Nerves were clearly affecting Fritz, who only hit 59% of his first serves while converting just two of 13 break-point chances (15.4%).
No one should expect Alcaraz to play like that, but I'm still bullish on Djokovic pushing this to at least four sets and perhaps five.
Another wager I'm making is Djokovic +1.5 sets at +148.
- Djokovic is 4-1 in his last five matches against Alcaraz. That includes a win at this year's Australian Open and a straight-sets victory at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals.
- Both players will have two days' rest between their quarterfinal matchups on Tuesday and Friday's semifinal showdown. That should favour the 38-year-old underdog.
- Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in eight of his last nine Grand Slam matches against top-10 players, including each of his last five.
Key stat: Alcaraz has only beaten Djokovic in straight sets once (2024 Wimbledon final) in their eight meetings.
Djokovic vs. Alcaraz best bet made at 12 p.m. on 09/03/2025.
