A pivotal AL East series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees begins in the Bronx on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto heads into the three-game set with a three-game lead over New York, which occupies a wild-card spot. Kevin Gausman gets the assignment and he dazzled when he last saw the Yankees in July. I like both Toronto and Gausman to deliver in the series opener.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees same-game parlay predictions for Sept. 5, featuring a prediction on Aaron Judge.
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays to win | Gausman over 5.5 Ks | Judge over 1.5 total bases (+700)
Toronto ML (+114): There are safer options I like more, but I love the price of this three-leg same-game parlay. And I don’t think it’s a far-fetched outcome by any means.
Would you be surprised if the first-place Blue Jays won behind Gausman tonight? No.
How about if Gausman (5-3 vs. this line in the second half) recorded six-plus strikeouts? No.
Judge, fourth in MLB in games with two-plus total bases, to clear a 1.5 line? No.
Well, if you combine those selections, you get a +700 SGP. Count me in.
- The Blue Jays were off Thursday, giving their struggling bullpen a much-needed reset.
- Toronto is 7-3 vs. the Yankees, taking two of three vs. them in July and sweeping a four-game set earlier that month.
- This is a rare spot to get the Blue Jays as an underdog. They've been favoured in 13 of their last 15 games. Toronto hasn't had a bigger plus-money price to win since Aug. 10 vs. the Dodgers, according to Team Rankings.
The Blue Jays have only won one of Gausman's last five starts, but that hasn't been the fault of the right-hander.
Gausman allowed two runs or fewer in four of those outings and was excellent against the Yankees in late July. He spun seven innings of one-run ball in a 4-1 win.
As for Toronto's offence, it ranks No. 1 in MLB average, on-base percentage, slugging and wRC+ in the second half.
MLB SGP legs
Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-141): Sticking with Gausman, there's plenty to like right now.
His ERA, WHIP and walk rate are all vastly improved in the second half. More importantly for this bet, so is his K rate.
Gausman's first-half K rate was a respectable 23.1%, but that's shot up to 27.3% since the all-star break.
- The veteran is 16-11 vs. this line on the season.
- He has punched out at least seven batters in five of his last eight outings, including eight Yankees in that July gem.
The way both the righty and Toronto's bullpen have been throwing, Gausman should have a pretty long leash tonight.
New York is top 10 in MLB in K% over the last 30 days, over the full season, and vs. RHPs.
Judge over 1.5 total bases (+100): Judge doesn't need much selling.
He leads the majors in all three slash categories, wRC+ and WAR (FanGraphs). And he has pulverized Gausman plenty in the past.
In 58 career plate appearances, Judge has 16 hits (six homers) and a .356/.491/.822 batting line.
If he can't top this number against Gausman, he'll get a crack vs. Toronto's bullpen, which has the worst second-half ERA (5.60) in the AL.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions made at 12:45 p.m. ET on 09/05/2025
