The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers open their seasons with a Friday night showdown in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
The pregame narrative: Kansas City fell short of a historic three-peat last season but is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are modest 3-point favourites as of Monday afternoon against a Chargers team looking to build on Jim Harbaugh's successful maiden coaching campaign.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Chargers picks for the game on Sept. 5, featuring prop bets on Isiah Pacheco and Keenan Allen.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers picks
Best bet: Pacheco over 64.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
I'm of the mind that we can throw Pacheco's 2024 season out of the window.
The running back suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 and never regained his starting role after that, slipping into a timeshare with veteran Kareem Hunt upon his return in Week 13. But take a look at what he did in the two weeks before the injury:
- Week 1 vs. BAL: 45 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards
- Week 2 vs. CIN: 90 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards
And the year before that? Pacheco averaged 66.8 rushing yards and 17.4 receiving yards per game as a sophomore.
He went 9-5 against this line and had a healthy 60% snap share.
Assuming Pacheco is fully healthy for this season, and all reports indicate he is, this line should be a laugher. I don't care how good Los Angeles' defence is; Pacheco is a bell-cow back who can catch and should be fed early and often.
Also, Pacheco logged 61 scrimmage yards with a 46% snap share in his Week 14 matchup with the Chargers last season.
Key stat: Pacheco was 15-5 against this line from the start of the 2023 season up until his injury in Week 2 last year (playoffs included).
NFL Brazil game prop pick
Allen over 3.5 receptions (-113): You might be reading this thinking: "Wait, since when is Allen back on the Chargers?"
I wouldn't blame you for that one, as the veteran joined camp less than a month ago on a one-year "prove-it" deal.
But I don't think the 33-year-old is washed, and I believe he'll slide in as a solid No. 2 behind sophomore Ladd McConkey, especially with Quentin Johnston (concussion) possibly sidelined.
Allen earned 121 targets in a deep Chicago Bears receiving room last year, is sure-handed (he only had six drops all year), and can still create a good amount of separation at the line.
His familiarity with Herbert will certainly be a boost, too.
Allen had three-plus receptions in 14 of 15 games last year, going 10-5 against this line.
Chiefs vs. Chargers picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 09/01/2025.
