In the first half of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Houston to face the Texans.
The pregame narrative: Houston's offence looked miserable in Los Angeles last week, but C.J. Stroud is a different beast inside his home stadium. Still, the Texans are questionable favourites against the four-time reigning NFC South champions.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Texans picks for Monday Night Football Week 2 on Sept. 15, featuring prop bets on Stroud and Emeka Egbuka.
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Buccaneers vs. Texans picks
Best Bet: Egbuka 50+ receiving yards (-130)
Egbuka's NFL debut went off without a hitch.
Thrust into a starting role due to injuries in the Bucs' receiving room (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan), Egbuka excelled in Week 1. He finished with four catches on six targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns.
It's quite possible the 2025 first-round draftee would've earned a starting job even if Tampa's full WR room was healthy. Either way, he wasted no time showing that he belongs.
Egbuka led Tampa receivers in snap percentage (93.1%), according to FootballGuys.com and participated in every route.
It sure looks like Egbuka is locked in as a top-two receiver for Tampa Bay, which makes this a very attainable yardage total.
The Texans ranked sixth in total defence last year and could make things tough on the Bucs at times. But given that Egbuka is the primary slot receiver, he could be the beneficiary of some additional underneath looks.
Key stat: Last week, the Texans allowed 50+ receiving yards to the Rams' two primary receivers (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams).
More Monday Night Football picks
Buccaneers +3 (-127): The Bucs should be live dogs in prime time, which makes me really like them with a few points.
- Tampa is 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
- In the same span, Houston is 4-5-2 ATS as a favourite.
Stroud had the game of his NFL life against Tampa Bay when these teams last met in 2023. He threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns ... and the Bucs still covered a +2.5 spread in a 39-37 win for the Texans.
Houston only scored nine points in a season-opening loss to the Rams last week. I need to see more before I can lay points with this team against an expectant playoff squad.
Stroud over 228.5 passing yards (-114): Speaking of Stroud, I've become a big fan of backing him at home and fading him on the road.
And his early-career numbers back that up:
- Home (16 starts): 281.4 yards/game, 65.0% completion rate, 99.0 passer rating
- Road (17 starts): 207.1 yards/game, 62.3% completion rate, 86.9 passer rating
Including the postseason, Stroud has gone over 228.5 passing yards in 14 of 18 starts. And again, he dominated the Bucs a couple of seasons ago at home.
From the friendly confines of NRG Stadium, I expect a bounce-back effort from Stroud.
Buccaneers vs. Texans picks made at 12:11 p.m. ET 09/13/2025.
