For Saturday's MLB prop bets, I'm particularly keyed on the evening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres.
Today's MLB props narrative: Dylan Cease isn't known to work deep into games, which can make a high strikeout total difficult to reach. I'm fading Cease on Saturday and backing infielder Jake Cronenworth to make his mark at the plate.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 13, featuring a prediction on Pete Alonso.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+110)
The New York Mets are in a tailspin, but facing Patrick Corbin today should help.
- Corbin took a sub-4.00 ERA into August, which is notable for him, but things have taken a turn for the worse. Since then, Corbin has allowed 23 runs over seven starts (6.34 ERA).
- Corbin ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.75) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.276), per Baseball Savant.
Getting Alonso at plus-money odds to collect multiple bases sounds great to me. He's an elite slugger with a great (and extensive) track record against Corbin.
In previous meetings, Alonso is 17-for-49 (.347) with five home runs and three doubles vs. Corbin.
Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.
New York is absolutely down bad right now, losing seven straight games and watching its lead in the wild-card race dwindle to almost nothing. Alonso needs to be one of the guys stepping up, and I say he gets it going on Saturday.
Key stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 total bases per game since Aug. 1 and is slugging .549 in that span.
Best MLB picks
Cronenworth over 0.5 RBI (+180): When Bradley Blalock last pitched against San Diego, he allowed 12 earned runs over 3.2 innings. Cronenworth got in on the fun, connecting for a solo homer in the third.
With Blalock back on the mound against the Padres tonight, I like this market as a way of targeting San Diego's shortstop.
Cronenworth has an .887 OPS in his past 18 games. He usually bats in the bottom-third of the order, which explains why this RBI prop is priced where it is. But if the Padres are humming, everyone should have RBI opportunities.
Blalock ranks in the first percentile (i.e., worst) in xBA, chase rate and strikeout rate. He also has a third-percentile xERA (5.96).
Left-handed batters, like Cronenworth, have a 1.010 OPS off Blalock in 11 games this year.
Bet on Rockies vs. Padres prop markets
Cease under 7.5 Ks (+108): Cease is effectively wild on the mound, racking up walks and strikeouts along the way. That drives up his pitch count, though, and usually prevents him from clearing a number like this.
- Despite having the second-best K/9 in the majors (11.62), Cease has gone under this strikeout total in 19 of 29 starts.
- He's averaging 6.7 Ks per start.
- Cease's 3.87 BB/9 is the third-highest in the majors among 53 qualified pitchers.
The Rockies strike out a lot, but I love this plus-money fade at a pretty high number. Cease has only completed 6.0 IP once in his past 10 outings, so he'd have to be really efficient to clear a 7.5-strikeout total.
Last weekend, Cease struck out five Rockies hitters over 5.0 IP. He threw 102 pitches in that start.
MLB prop picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/13/2025.
