A pair of top-five NCAA Division I programs are featured in this week's four-pack of college football picks.
The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes host a plucky Ohio Bobcats squad that should push the defending champs a bit. Meanwhile, the No. 17 South Florida Bulls put their impressive start on the line against the No. 5 Miami (FL) Hurricanes.
Check out the best college football Week 3 picks, featuring an over/under pick for the Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. California Golden Bears matchup.
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College football picks Week 3
Best bet: South Florida/Miami under 56 points (-108)
South Florida has two top-25 upset wins in as many weeks. If the Bulls are going to have a shot at a third one, I think they'll need to muck things up.
- The Bulls were in a rock fight last week in The Swamp, trailing 9-6 at halftime in a battle of field goals before eventually upsetting then-No. 13 Florida, 18-16.
- In the week before, South Florida bottled up the Ashton Jeanty-less Boise State Broncos in a 34-7 win.
- USF has forced six fumbles and corralled four turnovers through two weeks.
Miami has looked strong with Carson Beck under centre so far, but both of the Hurricanes' games went under this total.
Both defences rank in the top 50 in the country in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper.
The Hurricanes hung 50 points on the Bulls last year, but that was with Cam Ward under centre.
A lot has changed since then, and USF's performance against D.J. Lagway and Florida has me bullish — sorry — on the visitors.
Key stat: Unders are 6-1-1 when South Florida is an underdog since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.
No. 1 Buckeyes face in-state Bobcats
Ohio +31.5 (-110): I know Ohio State is the defending national champion — and I might be slightly biased as an Ohio University graduate — but this is a lot of points to give the Bobcats after an encouraging start.
- Ohio fell just short of a comeback against Rutgers in Week 1, losing 34-31 as a 15.5-point underdog.
- This past Saturday, the Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers, 17-10, as 3.5-point dogs.
Fifth-year senior quarterback Parker Navarro gives the Bobcats poise and experience under centre. After rushing for 1,046 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, he has accounted for 666 passing/rushing yards and four total TDs through two games.
Remember, he's putting up those numbers against Power Four programs — not FCS doormats.
Speaking of which, Ohio State did post a 70-0 win last week over Grambling State (FCS). But this week's pay game should be much, much punchier.
Ohio is 6-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
More college football best bets
UAB -11.5 (-110): I faded the UAB Blazers last week, and it didn't work out. Though they were blanked in the second half, the Blazers were tied with Navy at halftime and comfortably covered a hefty underdog spread.
Now, UAB is rightfully favoured against the truly atrocious Akron Zips.
- Akron is still looking for its first points of the season. The team has been outscored 78-0 through two games.
- The Zips are 5-11 ATS in non-conference play over the past four seasons. Last year, they lost all three of their D-I non-conference games by 32+ points.
The Blazers at least know how to drum up some offence. Quarterback Jalen Kitna — son of ex-NFL QB Jon Kitna — has thrown for 551 yards and four TDs on 10.0 yards/attempt through two games.
Akron ranks dead last in D-I in net EPA per play.
Minnesota/California over 43.5 points (-108): It's time to learn the name Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
The Hawaiian-born QB, who originally committed to Oregon, was the No. 7 quarterback in 247 Sports' class of 2025. He's been solid through two games, throwing for 493 yards and three TDs while adding a score on the ground.
Cal scored 34 and 35 points, respectively, in its first two games. I think Sagapolutele can help the Golden Bears contribute to this low total.
Then there's Minnesota, a team that put up 59 points in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. Sure, that was against Northwestern State (FCS), but it's an exciting stat line for P.J. Fleck's crew.
Minnesota's offence ranks 27th in success rate and 29th in EPA/play.
College football picks made at 2 p.m. on 09/09/2025.
