I'm targeting three players for Thursday's light MLB slate, including San Diego Padres outfielder Ramon Laureano on two markets.
Today's MLB props narrative: Laureano is swinging a hot stick, hits in a run-producing spot, and will enjoy an excellent matchup against the Colorado Rockies.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 11, featuring predictions on Jose Soriano and Stephen Kolek.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Kolek over 16.5 outs (-114)
There are several reasons why I like Kolek to hit the over on this prop tonight. Let’s start with his opponent, the Cleveland Guardians.
- Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last seven games.
- The Guardians are 28th in wRC+ vs. righties. They’re 27th in wRC+ in the second half.
- St. Louis is the only team getting on base at a lower clip since the all-star break.
Kolek will enjoy this struggling offence at Progressive Field, a below-average offensive environment.
While the wind isn't expected to be strong in Cleveland, it's expected to be blowing in, potentially weakening the ability to put the ball in the seats.
And that’s not something that has plagued Kolek anyway.
The right-hander’s HR/9 rate is well below league average, and he doesn’t issue many free passes. Kolek isn't a big strikeout arm, either.
Those factors should theoretically allow him to keep his pitch counts down and work deep, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing.
- Kolek is coming off a seven-inning gem, the longest he’s gone since pitching a shutout in May.
- The righty has topped this line in four consecutive outings and has allowed a total of five runs over his last three starts.
- On top of that, the Royals used an all-hands-on-deck approach last night, deploying six arms vs. the Guardians.
Key stat: Kolek has worked into the sixth inning in 13 of his 16 starts, clearing this line 10 times.
Best MLB picks
Soriano over 15.5 outs (-132): The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has thrown the ball really well in three of his last five starts.
In the other two, he was clobbered by the Athletics, including his last outing (eight runs and five walks over 2.1 innings).
Soriano now looks for a rebound at one of the most pitcher-friendly spots in MLB, T-Mobile Park.
The Seattle Mariners have been swinging the bats well, but this is a light line for Soriano, and the Angels went through a slew of bullpen arms in yesterday's 4-3 win.
Soriano is 7-2. vs. this line over his last nine outings and cleared it in 19 of 29 starts on the season.
Laureano over 1.5 bases (+112) & 1+ RBI (+135): Laureano has been a beast since joining the Padres, batting .304/.360/.551 with 25 RBI in 37 games.
He has a career-best .893 OPS on the season and is one homer shy of the personal-best 24 he blasted back in 2019.
Laureano has hit fifth in every game this month, putting him behind the Padres' most potent bats, including all-stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Getting Colorado's pitching provides a good opportunity to do damage.
The Rockies are starting McCade Brown, who was demolished by San Diego for six runs on five hits over 1.2 innings last weekend. Brown has a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through his first three MLB starts.
Following Brown is a Rockies bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.13 ERA in the second half.
MLB prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.
