Only four teams remain at the 2025 FIBA EuroBasket, with the semifinal being played out on Friday.
The pre-game narrative: Germany is heavily favoured to advance past Finland, which has advanced to the semifinal for the first time behind the superb play of Lauri Markkanen. After that, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece are in a pick'em against Turkey.
Check out my FIBA EuroBasket semifinal picks for Sept. 12, featuring Dennis Schroder.
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FIBA EuroBasket picks
Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 10.5 rebounds (+105)
This line would be a laugher if it were an NBA game.
The Greek Freak averaged 11.9 rebounds last year (sixth-most), marking the seventh-straight NBA season where he tallied 11-plus boards per game.
But this isn't the NBA, and with 10-minute quarters, there will be eight fewer minutes of gameplay.
Still, he should play enough minutes to clear this total in a tightly-contested affair. Giannis is averaging 10.0 RPG when playing north of 30 minutes in this tournament.
Turkey has Alperen Sengun as its centre, and Giannis has routinely eaten his lunch in the NBA.
Key stat: In his last five games against Sengun's Rockets, Giannis is 4-1 against this line while averaging 15.0 RPG.
Best Finland vs. Germany bet
Schroder over 6.5 assists (-141): Schroder has been an elite facilitator at this event, dishing the sixth-most assists per game (5.9) while playing heavy minutes for Germany.
The Sacramento Kings' guard is 3-4 against this line, but he did log a tournament-high nine assists when he played Finland — in Finland — during the group stage on Sept. 3.
Germany authored a 30-point blowout in that game, and it's reasonable to assume the team will win by a solid margin again (as the 11.5-point spread indicates).
Schroder's recent shooting struggles are ugly (he's 1-for-16 from deep over his last two games), so I expect him to have a pass-first mindset on Friday.
FIBA EuroBasket picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.
